The key to being a successful investor is to discover winning stocks before the rest of the market discovers them. That’s why if you are serious about becoming a successful investor, you should subscribe to a real-time service like the Motley Fool.
However, below I will do my best to reveal all of the Motley Fool’s top stock picks with an analysis of each of them.
Since 2002, the Motley Fool has searched for the best stock prospects in the market…
…and the performance of these picks have led to market-crushing performance.
Motley Fool focuses on finding stocks that have the best chance of outperforming the broader stock market.
But has anyone ever verified whether these “great” results are true?
Well, that is what we are here to do today.
We have chosen 10 stock picks made by the Motley fool…
…to review and analyze the company’s claims against actual performance.
So, how did these stocks perform?
You are about to find out if they deserve to be on our list of the best investment newsletters.
5 Stock Picks That Could Double Your Money from 2018
Pick Date: February 8, 2018
The Motley Fool created this list based on shares that made huge gains over the past year…
…but had the potential to DOUBLE in 2018 if these companies performed well.
1- Chipotle Mexican Grill
Motley Fool Analysis: Shares of Chipotle were at $760 back in August 2015. Currently, shares are less than half that amount. The company continues to be plagued by food safety scandals that have negatively impacted the brand built on “Food With Integrity.”
Chipotle has its work cut out if it ever hopes to reclaim its former glory. However, CEO Steve Ells will be stepping down should give shareholders some hope. Shares were up 6% on that announcement.
Chipotle has not yet found its new CEO, but if the company can find the right person, shares could enjoy a significant upside.
Stock Price (as of 2/9/2018): 255.46
Where they are today: Chipotle continues to move in the right direction. The “turnaround is looking for real,” says Morgan Stanley analyst John Glass. Recent results have shown a meaningful, positive trend change in sales with more initiatives in the early stages or still to come.
Sweeping changes to personnel and internal processes are producing excellent results, and the EPS estimates do not adequately consider what is possible under new management. The new management comes in the form of Brian Niccol, Taco Bell’s former CEO. Niccol has been successful in putting the company’s myriad of troubles behind. With that, Chipotle has already risen nearly 20% in 2019.
Stock Price (as of 2/9/2019): 582.77
The verdict: CORRECT!
Motley Fool Analysis: GoPro is ready for a turnaround. The camera maker was an immediate disappointment from its Initial Public Offering (IPO), as it became clear that the market for action camera makers was a lot smaller than the company had previously hoped. Shares peaked at $87 for several months but dropped into single digits after investors realized the company’s products would not achieve widespread adoption.
One likely scenario would be an acquisition. GoPro has retained JPMorgan to help advise on potentially selling the company. CEO Nick Woodman clarified that the company was not actively seeking a buyer and would prefer to remain an independent company.
Depending on how GoPro shares perform, and whether an interested buyer comes along, this stock could potentially double in the event a strong acquisition offer is made, or a bidding war emerges.
Stock Price (as of 2/9/2018): 5.46
Where they are today: The Company plans to translate the strong momentum in its business along with controlled cost into growth and profitability in 2019. GoPro remains optimistic about its prospects, primarily on its strong demand for its product in end markets. GoPro also reported 199,000 active paying subscribers to its GoPro Plus subscription offering, marking a 50%-plus increase from 2018.
However, at this point, GoPro has not proven to best the most compelling investment. GoPro has done little to show that they are turning around slowing camera sales or enter new markets to create new revenue streams. The company needs to turn device sales around, but we are wondering if they have maxed out most of its opportunities in the action-camera market.
Stock Price (as of 2/9/2019): 5.32
The verdict: NEUTRAL
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Motley Fool Analysis: Just like GoPro, Fitbit is a promising candidate for a turnaround year. Fitbit went public in mid-2015, shortly after Apple Launched its first Apple Watch. Ever since Apple Watch has been dominating the multipurpose smartwatch category while eliminating single-purpose wearable devices like Fitbit’s fitness tracker.
The rise of multipurpose smartwatches is a dangerous trend for Fitbit. However, the company is not ready to die. Fitbit started acquiring smaller companies in 2016 that would lay the foundation for its smartwatch strategy. Last year, Fitbit released the Ionic, Fitbit’s first full-fledged smartwatch that can support third-party apps.
Whether the Ionic can turnaround the brand remains to be seen. However, early success could allow Fitbit to accelerate the development of its smartwatch platform.
Stock Price (as of 2/9/2018): 5.14
Where they are today: Fitbit had several bright spots in 2018 and seems ready to move forward. Last October, the wearables bellwether gave a blowout financial report. Fitbit posted a profit after seven consecutive losing quarters of year-over-year revenue dips.
The sales turnaround came as a result of Fitbit’s second run at the smartwatch market, this time pricing its products more competitively than the market leader. Smartwatch sales now account for nearly half of Fitbit’s revenue.
Fitbit is off to a strong start in 2019, and the stock has been reflecting this positivity. However, the end of 2019 is far away, and Fitbit has much to do to convince us that they will continue trending upward.
Stock Price (as of 2/9/2019): 6.49
The verdict: NEUTRAL
4- Universal Display
Motley Fool Analysis: This Company seems like an unlikely candidate to double in 2018, especially since shares tripled in 2017. But, if you consider the underlying cause of 2017s performance, there are reasons to be optimistic about the continued adoption of Universal Display’s OLED technology, which allows for thinner screens with deeper blacks and higher contrast.
The OLED industry continues making progress in ramping production capacity to accommodate this demand from consumers and gadget makers. IHS Markit predicts that global AMOLED (active-matrix OLED) panel production capacity will more than quadruple over the next five years, which would benefit Universal Display as the primary seller of OLED materials and licensor of OLED technology.
Stock Price (as of 2/9/2018): 143.35
Where they are today: Business was down for Universal Display in 2018. There are many reasons for the stocks sharp decline; the most significant reason being the change in revenue recognition related to the new accounting rules that went into effect in 2018. Under the old standard, 2018 sales would have been nearly 6% higher.
With that said, Universal Display’s revenue grew 69% in 2017. That statistic represents a dramatic decrease between 2017 and 2018. However, Wall Street still expects dramatic improvement for the company in 2019. Management contends that strong growth is coming as OLED technology becomes the standard in the world of digital displays. If you think OLED screens are the next big thing – this stock is worth another look in 2019.
Stock Price (as of 2/9/2019): 110.71
The verdict: WRONG!
Motley Fool Analysis: Okta is a young company that has quickly become a leader in the growing identity and access management (IAM) sector, and Okta is already putting up strong growth rates after going public nearly a year ago.
Larger companies have started to pay more attention to IAM, with Alphabet subsidiary Google acquiring Bitium last year in a move that largely validates the importance of IAM in the years ahead. With a market cap of $3 billion, Okta still has plenty of room to run as the IAM industry grows in step with the broader cybersecurity industry.
Stock Price (as of 2/9/2018): 28.87
Where they are today: Shares of the cloud-based identity-management specialist were up over 149% in 2018. The company continues to climb closer to profitability on the back of excellent revenue growth.
Okta did achieve a breakeven bottom-line result in the third quarter of the fiscal year 2019. Additionally, top-line sales grew 55% higher year over year to end up at $106 million. In 2019, the company continues to carve out a unique niche in the computer security market with an emphasis on authentication and logins.
For now, it is all about the revenue growth which has shown no signs of slowing in 2019. Regardless of performance this year, there is an undeniable wealth of long-term growth potential with Okta.
Stock Price (as of 2/9/2019): 83.17
The verdict: CORRECT!
5 Top Motley Fool Stock Picks Revealed (A.K.A. Stocks to Buy Now)
The following stocks have been big winners for a long time.
However, there is plenty of opportunities left for market-beating growth with these stocks.
Each of these companies has either been a significant catalyst for, or one of the primary beneficiaries of, a major social trend.
Pick Date: March 2, 2018
Motley Fool Analysis: Apple is not the dominant smartphone maker worldwide, or even in the United States – that honor goes to Samsung – and it doesn’t have the dominant operating system – that goes to Android. However, Apple does have pricing power with customers in its sizable niche markets.
Apple’s update cycle, where the company convinces customers to buy the newest iPhone each year, remains alive and well. The iPhone X was the world’s top-selling phone at one point, and the Apple Watch and iPad are showing accelerating growth as they seize market share. Each of these products, on their own, represent a credible path to continuing growth for Apple. Include the launch of Apple’s HomePod, and there are plenty of reasons for the growth to continue for Apple.
Stock Price (as of 3/2/2018): 176.21
Where they are today: Apple investors have seen rough times over the last few months. Since the company reached $233 per share back in September, the stock has plummeted 40% after the company announced it would miss first-quarter estimates.
Is the sell-off an indicator to leave or get in on Apple? Well, the company is growing service revenue at a steady clip. The company is still retaining customers and expanding its user base. And lastly, they are starting to focus on the health and privacy of the Apple brand. These are three positive long-term drivers and could be priced at a significant discount. If you are a long-term investor – we think Apple is a buy.
Stock Price (as of 2/9/2019): 170.41
The verdict: NEUTRAL
Motley Fool Analysis: You probably know Alphabet better by its old name, Google. Google is the dominant search ending worldwide, with nearly 92% global market share. Apart from the search engine, YouTube is another Alphabet property, and its rise has coincided with a lot of people spending a lot more time online.
Alphabet’s core Google and YouTube properties still have room to grow. There is more opportunity for each platform as the Google team continues to build out their data analytics to get marketers a high return on investment.
Additionally, Alphabet’s “moonshot” initiatives are unlikely to pan out but taken as a whole; they offer many compelling opportunities that few successes could do a great deal to drive the company forward.
Stock Price (as of 3/2/2018): 1,084.14
Where they are today: Regardless of what the market does, Alphabet remains on course to keep gaining. People are not going to stop searching the internet or watching YouTube videos because the market is down. Additionally, Alphabet has many initiatives that could pay off in the future, even if they are not adding much to the bottom line.
For these reasons, Alphabet performed great in 2018 and looks like a promising stock for years to come. Alphabet’s multiple revenue streams and durability make it an excellent buy in 2019. If you are thinking beyond 2019 – Alphabet remains a great pick, still.
Stock Price (as of 2/9/2019): 1,102.38
The verdict: CORRECT!
Motley Fool Analysis: Amazon is many things to consumers which highlights Jeff Bezos’ vision for a company that began as an online bookstore. Beyond books, Bezos has launched a full-scale assault on brick-and-mortar stores across a variety of different sectors in consumer goods and tech – with huge implications of Amazon’s top and bottom lines.
Amazon’s Prime subscription is more a gateway to its core consumer purchasing platform than anything else. The majority of Amazon’s revenue still comes from product sales, which grew 17% year over year last quarter. Its business-focused Amazon Web Services has become a very popular offering and shows another path of growth to the company. With this in mind, Amazon’s dominance across different aspects of e-commerce is only accelerating.
Stock Price (as of 3/2/2018): 1,500.25
Where they are today: Amazon stock gained 28.4% in 2018. This performance is an impressive one given that the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indexes returned negative 4.4% and negative 3.9%, respectively. Amazon stock continues to look more attractive from a valuation standpoint than it has in a long time.
We can mostly attribute Amazon’s success to the company’s strong quarterly results. All four quarters reported in 2018 crushed Wall Street earnings estimates, along with the company’s own operating income guidance. The two significant drivers were North America segment’s operating-income growth and Amazon Web Services increasing profitability.
With that said – Amazon stock crushed 2018 and is looking for more in 2019.
Stock Price (as of 2/9/2019): 1,588.22
The verdict: CORRECT!
Motley Fool Analysis: Facebook, as a social media app, has an enormous impact on society. Facebook influences how we interact with each other, consumer news, play games, and even shop online. And do not forget about Facebook’s Instagram and WhatsApp brands, either. Facebook plays on many of the same trends that have helped the other companies grow to such market dominance.
Facebook is heavily monetizing its namesake platform for ad revenue, and its begun the same process with Instagram, though it has a ways to go before Instagram’s platform is fully saturated. Facebook Marketplace – a way for people to sell their products directly on the website – now has over 700 million unique users, with growth continuing to ramp up.
Stock Price (as of 3/2/2018): 176.62
Where they are today: We saw Facebook stock drop more than 20% in 2018 due to concerns about the company’s decelerating growth and ongoing privacy and security issues. Additionally, rising interest rates and broader sell-offs of high-growth tech stocks only made matters worse.
However, we must not forget that Facebook remains the world’s top social network and does not face any serious competition. Furthermore, even though Facebook’s operating margins are slowing down and the company’s operating profit is coming down, the company is still extremely profitable.
Stock Price (as of 2/9/2019): 167.33
The verdict: NEUTRAL
Motley Fool Analysis: Netflix has led the charge on the destruction of traditional video stores and its DVD-by-mail rental service began a trend toward receiving goods at home instead of going out to stores to shop for them.
The rise of Netflix has also encouraged Americans to “cut the cord” and remove their expensive cable packages in favor of the cheaper Netflix subscription. Netflix has also benefitted from the continued improvement of consumer TVs, which has encouraged people to stay home rather than go to the theaters.
Lastly, consider Netflix has nearly 111 million global paid subscriptions, just under half of which are US-based. As Netflix further expands its dominance globally – and a subscription becomes a social expectation increasingly outside of the United States – profitability will keep growing. For more growth stock picks, you may be interested in Motley Fool Rule Breakers.
Stock Price (as of 3/2/2018): 301.05
Where they are today: Netflix reached an all-time high in 2018 but plunged more than 40% afterward. But remember, the company finished up more than 20% in 2018. With that type of rollercoaster ride, is Netflix a buy or is the stock falling for good reasons?
Let’s admit it – Netflix has had an incredible run, bringing streaming into the mainstream and disrupting television as we know it. We expect these results to continue, but possibly at a slower pace in 2019.
Stock Price (as of 2/9/2019): 347.57
The verdict: CORRECT!
Motley Fool Stock Picks Summary
The Motley Fool does not always choose “winning” stocks because they use HUMAN analysts.
However, if someone promises they have a 100% win rate…
…you should promptly RUN away!
No one can predict the [unpredictable] stock market with 100% accuracy.
But the Motley Fool predicted the stocks above to succeed in 2018, and most of them did!
Of course, for legal reasons, I can only share “some” of their top stock picks. (I did my best) But if you want their top picks delivered to you in Real-time, give their service a shot. I’ve been a subscriber for 4 years now and I wouldn’t look back. Of course everyone is different and may not have the time to act on their picks. It’s not a magic system, you need to place the trades when they tell you to.
But if you are serious about investing, it’s a no risk offer. (30-day guarantee)
Here is a summary of the results:
- Correct: 5
- Neutral: 4
- Wrong: 1
Here are the final results (on a per share basis) on the Motley Fool stock picks that we sampled:
- Chipotle Mexican Grill: CORRECT
- GoPro: NEUTRAL
- Fitbit: NEUTRAL
- Universal Display: WRONG
- Okta: CORRECT
- Apple: NEUTRAL
- Alphabet: CORRECT
- Amazon: CORRECT
- Facebook: NEUTRAL
- Netflix: CORRECT
As it turns out…
…the Motley Fool is accurate!
These guys were correct about 50% of the time, neutral 40% of the time, and wrong 10% of the time. That means, if you follow their picks, you will make money.
In such an unpredictable market, we will take those results any day!
So, can you rely on the Motley Fool?
In 2018, you certainly could and 2019 looks equally promising!
P.s. Right now, the Motley Fool is at it’s lowest price ever. So, if you are on the fence about subscribing, I’d suggest you do it now. Here is their current offer. (* Don’t worry, they offer a 30-day money back guarantee)