Prominent Russian Scientist: 'We should fear a deep temperature drop -- not catastrophic global warming'
'Warming had a natural origin...CO2 is 'not guilty'
Reprint of new scientific paper: (Full pdf paper available here.)
THE SUN DEFINES THE CLIMATE
(Habibullo
Abdussamatov, Dr. Sc. - Head of Space research laboratory of the
Pulkovo Observatory, Head of the Russian/Ukrainian joint project
Astrometria - (translated from Russian by Lucy Hancock) Dr.
Abdussamatov is featured on page 140 of the 2009 U.S. Senate Report of More Than 700 Dissenting Scientists Over Man-Made Global Warming. Also see "Related Links" below.)
Key Excerpts:
Observations of the Sun show that as for the increase in temperature,
carbon dioxide is "not guilty" and as for what lies ahead in the
upcoming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global, and
very prolonged, temperature drop. [...] Over the past decade,
global temperature on the Earth has not increased; global warming has
ceased, and already there are signs of the future deep temperature drop.
[...] It follows that warming had a natural origin, the contribution of
CO2 to it was insignificant, anthropogenic increase in the
concentration of carbon dioxide does not serve as an explanation for
it, and in the foreseeable future CO2 will not be able to cause
catastrophic warming. The so-called greenhouse effect will not avert
the onset of the next deep temperature drop, the 19th in the last 7500
years, which without fail follows after natural warming. [...] We
should fear a deep temperature drop -- not catastrophic global warming.
Humanity must survive the serious economic, social, demographic and
political consequences of a global temperature drop, which will
directly affect the national interests of almost all countries and more
than 80% of the population of the Earth. A deep temperature
drop is a considerably greater threat to humanity than warming.
However, a reliable forecast of the time of the onset and of the depth
of the global temperature drop will make it possible to adjust in
advance the economic activity of humanity, to considerably weaken the
crisis.
Excerpts:
Experts of the United Nations in regular reports publish data said to
show that the Earth is approaching a catastrophic global warming,
caused by increasing emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.
However, observations of the Sun show that as for the increase in
temperature, carbon dioxide is "not guilty" and as for what lies ahead
in the upcoming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global,
and very prolonged, temperature drop.
Life
on earth completely depends on solar radiation, the ultimate source of
energy for natural processes. For a long time it was thought that the
luminosity of the Sun never changes, and for this reason the quantity
of solar energy received per second over one square meter above the
atmosphere at the distance of the Earth from the Sun (149 597 892 km),
was named the solar constant.
Until
1978, precise measurements of the value of the total solar irradiance
(TSI) were not available. But according to indirect data, namely the
established major climate variations of the Earth in recent millennia,
one must doubt the invariance of its value.
In
the middle of the nineteenth century, German and Swiss astronomers
Heinrich Schwabe and Rudolf Wolf established that the number of spots
on the surface of the Sun periodically changes, diminishing from a
maximum to a minimum, and then growing again, over a time frame on the
order of 11 years. Wolf introduced an index (“W”) of the relative
number of sunspots, computed as the sum of 10 times number of sunspot
groups plus the total number of spots in all groups. This number has
been regularly measured since 1849. Drawing on the work of professional
astronomers and the observations of amateurs (which are of uncertain
reliability) Wolf worked out a reconstruction of monthly values from
1749 as well as annual values from 1700. Today, the reconstruction of
this time series stretches back to 1611. It has an eleven-year cycle of
recurrence as well as other cycles related to onset and development of
individual sunspot groups: changes in the fraction of the solar surface
occupied by faculae, the frequency of prominences, and other phenomena
in the solar chromosphere and corona.
Analyzing
the long record of sunspot numbers, the English astronomer Walter
Maunder in 1893 came to the conclusion that from 1645 to 1715 sunspots
had been generally absent. Over the thirty-year period of the Maunder
Minimum, astronomers of the time counted only about 50 spots. Usually,
over that length of time, about 50,000 sunspots would appear. Today, it
has been established that such minima have repeatedly occurred in the
past. It is also known that the Maunder Minimum accompanied the coldest
phase of a global temperature dip, physically measured in Europe and
other regions, the most severe such dip for several millennia, which
stretched from the fourteenth to the nineteenth centuries (now known as
the Little Ice Age).
The
search for a relationship between large climate variations and
phenomena observed in the Sun led to an interest in finding a
connection between periods of change in the terrestrial climate and
corresponding significant changes in the level of observed solar
activity, because the sunspot number is the only index that has been
measured over a long period of time.
Determinative role of the Sun in variations in the climate of the Earth
The
Earth, after receiving and storing over the twentieth century an
anomalously large amount of heat energy, from the 1990's began to
return it gradually. The upper layers of the world ocean, completely
unexpectedly to climatologists, began to cool in 2003. The heat
accumulated by them unfortunately now is running out.
Over
the past decade, global temperature on the Earth has not increased;
global warming has ceased, and already there are signs of the future
deep temperature drop (Fig. 7, 11). Meantime the concentration of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere over these years has grown by more
than 4%, and in 2006 many meteorologists predicted that 2007 would be
the hottest of the last decade. This did not occur, although the global
temperature of the Earth would have increased at least 0.1 degree if it
depended on the concentration of carbon dioxide. It follows that
warming had a natural origin, the contribution of CO2 to it was
insignificant, anthropogenic increase in the concentration of carbon
dioxide does not serve as an explanation for it, and in the foreseeable
future CO2 will not be able to cause catastrophic warming. The
so-called greenhouse effect will not avert the onset of the next deep
temperature drop, the 19th in the last 7500 years, which without fail
follows after natural warming.
The
earth is no longer threatened by the catastrophic global warming
forecast by some scientists; warming passed its peak in 1998-2005,
while the value of the TSI by July - September of last year had already
declined by 0.47 W/m2 (Fig. 1).
For
several years until the beginning in 2013 of a steady temperature drop,
in a phase of instability, temperature will oscillate around the
maximum that has been reached, without further substantial rise.
Changes in climatic conditions will occur unevenly, depending on
latitude. A temperature decrease in the smallest degree would affect
the equatorial regions and strongly influence the temperate climate
zones. The changes will have very serious consequences, and it is
necessary to begin preparations even now, since there is practically no
time in reserve. The global temperature of the Earth has begun its
decrease without limitations on the volume of greenhouse gas emissions
by industrially developed countries; therefore the implementation of
the Kyoto protocol aimed to rescue the planet from the greenhouse
effect should be put off at least 150 years.
[...]
Consequently,
we should fear a deep temperature drop -- not catastrophic global
warming. Humanity must survive the serious economic, social,
demographic and political consequences of a global temperature drop,
which will directly affect the national interests of almost all
countries and more than 80% of the population of the Earth. A deep
temperature drop is a considerably greater threat to humanity than
warming. However, a reliable forecast of the time of the onset and of
the depth of the global temperature drop will make it possible to
adjust in advance the economic activity of humanity, to considerably
weaken the crisis.
For complete paper see here:
Related Links:
UN
Fears (More) Global Cooling Commeth! IPCC Scientist Warns UN: We may be
about to enter 'one or even 2 decades during which temps cool' -
September 4, 2009
Flashback:
'Sun Sleeps': Danish Scientist declares 'global warming has stopped and
a cooling is beginning...enjoy global warming while it lasts' - Sept.
2009
Climate
Fears RIP...for 30 years!? - Global Warming could stop 'for up to 30
years! Warming 'On Hold?...'Could go into hiding for decades' study
finds – Discovery.com – March 2, 2009
Paper: Scientific evidence now points to global COOLING, contrary to UN alarmism
Meteorologist:
'Global cooling in its 8th year, declining ocean heat content, sea
level rises slowed or stopped, sun in a deep slumber' – April 30, 2009
Geologist:
'Records of past natural cycles suggest global cooling for first
several decades of the 21st century to about 2030' – June 5, 2009
Astronomers: 'Sun's output may decline significantly inducing another Little Ice Age on Earth' – August 15, 2009
Indian Geologist Dissents -- launches website: 'Enjoy Global Warming: Its natural' - Sept. 2009