Daily Politics

Gold hits new record high on dollar weakness

Mr. Magoo — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 17:40:04 GMT

Gold hits new record high on dollar weakness

Gold prices hit a fresh record high above $1,130 an ounce on Monday and traders reported fund buying, with a weak dollar offering additional support.

Reuters
Published: 9:46AM GMT 16 Nov 2009

"Someone had an interest in making a new high," said Michael Kempinski, a trader at Commerzbank. "Technically it's looking quite good now ... quite bullish levels."

"There is no bullish news that can give a reason for the move, so maybe someone is playing games and trying to protect their position," he added. "$1,150 is the next level."

Mr Kempinski added that gold, which touched a high of $1,132.95, was also buoyed by a weaker dollar and rising oil prices.

A weak US currency makes metals priced in dollars less expensive for holders of other currencies.

The dollar drifted as currency markets focused on US President Barack Obama's visit to China and what he might say about the dollar and the Chinese yuan, which the US and many other Western nations believe to be undervalued.

Gold has gained 10pc in the past 2½ weeks.

Sentiment was also fuelled by comments from investment fund BlackRock, a manager and adviser to the US Federal Reserve, that gold would rise further and central banks would be net buyers of gold this year.

"The most recent break-out in the gold price in US dollars has caused most gold prices to start trending higher at the same time," Evy Hambro, who runs two BlackRock commodities funds that are among the world's largest commodities funds, said in Sydney.

He added that investors were now looking for gold to rise in other currencies as well as US dollars.

"When you start to see the price rising in a range of different currencies, it is a clear sign of a very strong market to come," Mr Hambro said.

Demand for Gold was also helped by a pledge from Asia-Pacific leaders to continue with stimulus measures. This would mean continued low inflation, which has led to investors to seek higher returns in other asset classes.

Obama's Critics should be bowing their heads

Jewdakris — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:11:24 GMT

Obama's critics should be bowing their heads

The American right has worked itself into a lather over Obama's bow to Japan's emperor. They owe him an apology

Barack Obama's bow to the Japanese emperor: not unseemly deference, just impeccable manners. Photograph: Charles Dharapak/AP

To most reasonable people, it was a well-intentioned show of respect to a head of state who greeted his guest on the steps of his home before ushering him inside for lunch.

But Barack Obama's greeting to Japan's emperor, Akihito, at the weekend has worked the American right into a lather over what they see as their president's unseemly deference to a symbol of hereditary power.

The outrage was initially confined to commentators such as William Kristol, who, in an interview with Fox News on Sunday, wondered "why President Obama thought that was appropriate. Maybe he thought it would play well in Japan."

Now no less a figure than *** Cheney has waded in. "There is no need for an American president to bow to anyone," the former vice-president told the politico.com website.

By contrast, when Cheney met Akihito, he restricted the niceties to a stiff-backed handshake … but then Cheney is all charm.

Sean Hannity at Fox News claimed the Japanese were "mortified" by the addition of a handshake to the traditional greeting.

They were nothing of the sort: the handshake, though not strictly necessary, has crept into bowing etiquette, particularly in international business and politics. What better way to illustrate the meeting of two cultures?

Far from embarrassment, there is consternation here that some Americans should be so incensed by their president's impeccable manners. If anyone was belittled it was Akihito, who stands eight inches shorter than the 6ft 1in Obama.

Etiquette experts in Japan have praised the president's efforts, while an Imperial Household Agency spokesman said the greeting looked "natural and appropriate".

At the very least it was an improvement on the cringeworthy efforts of celebrities, Madonna included, who greet their Japanese fans with a nod of the head, palms pressed together in prayer. Sorry, Madge … wrong country.

But the vitriol continues.

In his LA Times blog titled, "How low will he go?" Andrew Malcolm called Obama "undignified" and his behaviour deeply misguided in the presence of a man whose father occupied the chrysanthemum throne when Japan and the US were at war.

Stephen Colbert exploited the bow's rich comic potential with a reference to George Bush Snr's "greeting" to his Japanese counterpart Kiichi Miyazawa in 1992: a lapful of vomit.

The conservative pundit Bill Bennett told CNN: "It's ugly. I don't want to see it. We don't defer to emperors."

Which is fine, because Obama wasn't deferring to anyone.

The angle and length of a bow in Japan depends on who is bowing to whom. Etiquette demands that a 90-degree bow should be reserved for such occasions as meeting the emperor or another VIP, or as a sincere expression of apology or regret.

Context is everything. I have seen teachers perform an "Obama" in front of graduating pupils, and departing senior editors practically kiss their kneecaps before a newsroom of lowly hacks. Deference, or simple gratitude and civility?

The Obama administration has stepped in to defend the president. "I think that those who try to politicise those things are just way, way, way off base," an unnamed official said.

The state department, meanwhile, attempted to clear up any confusion over how Americans should behave abroad.

Thanks to their ignorance, Cheney, Kristol et al now owe Obama an apology. A perfectly executed dogeza, foreheads pressed to the ground, would be a good start.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2009/nov/18/obama-japan-bow

Real Unemployment Rate 17.5%

Montana — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 00:03:53 GMT

The 'Real' Jobless Rate: 17.5% Of Workers Are Unemployed

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, JOBLESS RATE, U-6, U-3, RECOVERY, STOCK MARKET NEWS

Posted By: Jeff Cox | CNBC.com

CNBC.com

| 19 Nov 2009 | 04:55 PM ET

As experts debate the potential speed of the US recovery, one figure looms large but is often overlooked: nearly 1 in 5 Americans is either out of work or under-employed.

According to the government's broadest measure of unemployment, some 17.5 percent are either without a job entirely or underemployed. The so-called U-6 number is at the highest rate since becoming an official labor statistic in 1994.

The number dwarfs the statistic most people pay attention to—the U-3 rate—which most recently showed unemployment at 10.2 percent for October, the highest it has been since June 1983.

The difference is that what is traditionally referred to as the "unemployment rate" only measures those out of work who are still looking for jobs. Discouraged workers who have quit trying to find a job, as well as those working part-time but looking for full-time work or who are otherwise underemployed, count in the U-6 rate.

With such a large portion of Americans experiencing employment struggles, economists worry that an extended period of slow or flat growth lies ahead.

"To me there's no easy solution here," says Michael Pento, chief economist at Delta Global Advisors. "Unless you create another bubble in which the economy can create jobs, then you're not going to have growth. That's the sad truth."

Pento warns that forecasts of a double-dip ("W") or a straight up ("V") recovery both could be too optimistic given the jobs situation.

Instead, he believes the economy could flatline (or "L") for an extended period as small businesses struggle to grow and consequently rehire the workers that have been furloughed as the U-3 unemployment rate has doubled since March 2008.

As that trend has happened, the U-6 rate has expanded at an even more dramatic pace. Economists cite several reasons for the phenomenon.

For one, more workers are becoming discouraged as real estate—the focal point for the expansion in the earlier part of the decade—has collapsed and taken millions of directly related and ancillary jobs with it.

Many workers believe those jobs aren't coming back, and have thus quit looking and added themselves to the broader unemployment count.

"In the earlier part of this decade, 40 percent of all new jobs created were in real estate. Attorneys, mortgage brokers, agents, construction—they were all circled around housing," Pento says. "We've had a jobless recovery in the last two recessions. This is going to be the third jobless recovery in a row."

Another factor that may be leading people onto the rolls of those no longer looking for jobs is the government's accommodative extensions of jobless benefits.

"Workers are unemployed for a much longer span than we've seen historically," says David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities International in New York. "Part of that may be affected by the longer availability of benefits. It reduces the incentives for an urgent job search."

The U-6 rate debuted in January of 1994 at 11.8 percent, while the U-3 was at 6.6 percent. The measure hit a low of 6.9 percent in April 2000 while U-3 sat at 3.8 percent.

While the current methodology only dates back 15 years, a former U-6 gauge was in existence previously and peaked at 14.3 percent in 1982. Economists predict the current measure would fall just below that number using the same methodology.

"We're in the process of discovering how severe this recession and the long-run impact on certain industries will be and what that will do to overall employment," Resler says. The U-6 rate "portends a very slow, sluggish recovery."

If that holds and the US economy stays weak, that presents challenges for investors.

"People focus too much on that 10 percent number and not on the larger number," says Kevin Mahn, chief investment officer at Hennion & Walsh in Parsippany, N.J. "There's a humongous inventory of people out there looking for work and have been looking for work for a long time. Where are those jobs going to come from?"

High unemployment and the resulting pressure on consumers is driving many investors to look for opportunities overseas and in other assets.

Walsh says that trend is going to continue, with clients going to foreign markets, real estate investment trusts, certain bonds—anywhere that can offer profits above the slow-growth mire of US-based investments.

"If full employment is 4 percent, people are wondering how we're going to get from 10 (percent) to 4. Well, try getting from 17 to 4. We may not get back to full employment for a decade," Mahn says. "As an investor, that causes me to look for different places now. Maybe you can't just put money in US large caps and ride out this recovery."

Prominent Russian Scientist: 'We should fear a deep temperature drop -- not catastrophic global warming'

Mr. Magoo — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 18:13:10 GMT

Prominent Russian Scientist: 'We should fear a deep temperature drop -- not catastrophic global warming'

'Warming had a natural origin...CO2 is 'not guilty'

Tuesday, October 27, 2009By Marc Morano – Climate Depot

Reprint of new scientific paper: (Full pdf paper available here.)

THE SUN DEFINES THE CLIMATE

(Habibullo Abdussamatov, Dr. Sc. - Head of Space research laboratory of the Pulkovo Observatory, Head of the Russian/Ukrainian joint project Astrometria - (translated from Russian by Lucy Hancock) Dr. Abdussamatov is featured on page 140 of the 2009 U.S. Senate Report of More Than 700 Dissenting Scientists Over Man-Made Global Warming. Also see "Related Links" below.)

Key Excerpts: Observations of the Sun show that as for the increase in temperature, carbon dioxide is "not guilty" and as for what lies ahead in the upcoming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global, and very prolonged, temperature drop. [...] Over the past decade, global temperature on the Earth has not increased; global warming has ceased, and already there are signs of the future deep temperature drop. [...] It follows that warming had a natural origin, the contribution of CO2 to it was insignificant, anthropogenic increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide does not serve as an explanation for it, and in the foreseeable future CO2 will not be able to cause catastrophic warming. The so-called greenhouse effect will not avert the onset of the next deep temperature drop, the 19th in the last 7500 years, which without fail follows after natural warming. [...] We should fear a deep temperature drop -- not catastrophic global warming. Humanity must survive the serious economic, social, demographic and political consequences of a global temperature drop, which will directly affect the national interests of almost all countries and more than 80% of the population of the Earth. A deep temperature drop is a considerably greater threat to humanity than warming. However, a reliable forecast of the time of the onset and of the depth of the global temperature drop will make it possible to adjust in advance the economic activity of humanity, to considerably weaken the crisis.

Excerpts: Experts of the United Nations in regular reports publish data said to show that the Earth is approaching a catastrophic global warming, caused by increasing emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. However, observations of the Sun show that as for the increase in temperature, carbon dioxide is "not guilty" and as for what lies ahead in the upcoming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global, and very prolonged, temperature drop.

Life on earth completely depends on solar radiation, the ultimate source of energy for natural processes. For a long time it was thought that the luminosity of the Sun never changes, and for this reason the quantity of solar energy received per second over one square meter above the atmosphere at the distance of the Earth from the Sun (149 597 892 km), was named the solar constant.

Until 1978, precise measurements of the value of the total solar irradiance (TSI) were not available. But according to indirect data, namely the established major climate variations of the Earth in recent millennia, one must doubt the invariance of its value.

In the middle of the nineteenth century, German and Swiss astronomers Heinrich Schwabe and Rudolf Wolf established that the number of spots on the surface of the Sun periodically changes, diminishing from a maximum to a minimum, and then growing again, over a time frame on the order of 11 years. Wolf introduced an index (“W”) of the relative number of sunspots, computed as the sum of 10 times number of sunspot groups plus the total number of spots in all groups. This number has been regularly measured since 1849. Drawing on the work of professional astronomers and the observations of amateurs (which are of uncertain reliability) Wolf worked out a reconstruction of monthly values from 1749 as well as annual values from 1700. Today, the reconstruction of this time series stretches back to 1611. It has an eleven-year cycle of recurrence as well as other cycles related to onset and development of individual sunspot groups: changes in the fraction of the solar surface occupied by faculae, the frequency of prominences, and other phenomena in the solar chromosphere and corona.

Analyzing the long record of sunspot numbers, the English astronomer Walter Maunder in 1893 came to the conclusion that from 1645 to 1715 sunspots had been generally absent. Over the thirty-year period of the Maunder Minimum, astronomers of the time counted only about 50 spots. Usually, over that length of time, about 50,000 sunspots would appear. Today, it has been established that such minima have repeatedly occurred in the past. It is also known that the Maunder Minimum accompanied the coldest phase of a global temperature dip, physically measured in Europe and other regions, the most severe such dip for several millennia, which stretched from the fourteenth to the nineteenth centuries (now known as the Little Ice Age).

The search for a relationship between large climate variations and phenomena observed in the Sun led to an interest in finding a connection between periods of change in the terrestrial climate and corresponding significant changes in the level of observed solar activity, because the sunspot number is the only index that has been measured over a long period of time.

Determinative role of the Sun in variations in the climate of the Earth

The Earth, after receiving and storing over the twentieth century an anomalously large amount of heat energy, from the 1990's began to return it gradually. The upper layers of the world ocean, completely unexpectedly to climatologists, began to cool in 2003. The heat accumulated by them unfortunately now is running out.

Over the past decade, global temperature on the Earth has not increased; global warming has ceased, and already there are signs of the future deep temperature drop (Fig. 7, 11). Meantime the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere over these years has grown by more than 4%, and in 2006 many meteorologists predicted that 2007 would be the hottest of the last decade. This did not occur, although the global temperature of the Earth would have increased at least 0.1 degree if it depended on the concentration of carbon dioxide. It follows that warming had a natural origin, the contribution of CO2 to it was insignificant, anthropogenic increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide does not serve as an explanation for it, and in the foreseeable future CO2 will not be able to cause catastrophic warming. The so-called greenhouse effect will not avert the onset of the next deep temperature drop, the 19th in the last 7500 years, which without fail follows after natural warming.

The earth is no longer threatened by the catastrophic global warming forecast by some scientists; warming passed its peak in 1998-2005, while the value of the TSI by July - September of last year had already declined by 0.47 W/m2 (Fig. 1).

For several years until the beginning in 2013 of a steady temperature drop, in a phase of instability, temperature will oscillate around the maximum that has been reached, without further substantial rise. Changes in climatic conditions will occur unevenly, depending on latitude. A temperature decrease in the smallest degree would affect the equatorial regions and strongly influence the temperate climate zones. The changes will have very serious consequences, and it is necessary to begin preparations even now, since there is practically no time in reserve. The global temperature of the Earth has begun its decrease without limitations on the volume of greenhouse gas emissions by industrially developed countries; therefore the implementation of the Kyoto protocol aimed to rescue the planet from the greenhouse effect should be put off at least 150 years.

[...]

Consequently, we should fear a deep temperature drop -- not catastrophic global warming. Humanity must survive the serious economic, social, demographic and political consequences of a global temperature drop, which will directly affect the national interests of almost all countries and more than 80% of the population of the Earth. A deep temperature drop is a considerably greater threat to humanity than warming. However, a reliable forecast of the time of the onset and of the depth of the global temperature drop will make it possible to adjust in advance the economic activity of humanity, to considerably weaken the crisis.

For complete paper see here:

Flashback: 'Sun Sleeps': Danish Scientist declares 'global warming has stopped and a cooling is beginning...enjoy global warming while it lasts' - Sept. 2009

Climate Fears RIP...for 30 years!? - Global Warming could stop 'for up to 30 years! Warming 'On Hold?...'Could go into hiding for decades' study finds – Discovery.com – March 2, 2009

Paper: Scientific evidence now points to global COOLING, contrary to UN alarmism

Meteorologist: 'Global cooling in its 8th year, declining ocean heat content, sea level rises slowed or stopped, sun in a deep slumber' – April 30, 2009

Geologist: 'Records of past natural cycles suggest global cooling for first several decades of the 21st century to about 2030' – June 5, 2009

Astronomers: 'Sun's output may decline significantly inducing another Little Ice Age on Earth' – August 15, 2009

Indian Geologist Dissents -- launches website: 'Enjoy Global Warming: Its natural' - Sept. 2009

Glenn Beck is scarier than Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, says Anti-Defamation League

KELLYBROWN9 — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 04:07:30 GMT

Weep for joy, Glenn Beck: the Anti-Defamation League has cited you as the national media's fear-monger-in-chief.

In a new report examining the wave of anti-government hostility that's spread across the country since Barack Obama won the White House, the ADL cited Beck as the "most important mainstream media figure who has repeatedly helped to stoke the fires of anti-government anger."

Beck, a right-wing talk host with a TV show on Fox and popular syndicated radio program, is in a league of his own, the report from the Jewish anti-hate watchdog group asserts.

According to the report, other conservative media hosts, such as Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, routinely blast Obama and his administration, but they have typically dismissed or refused to offer a platform to conspiracy theorists and anti-government extremists.

Not Beck.

"Beck and his guests have made a habit of demonizing President Obama and promoting conspiracy theories about his administration," the report states. "Beck has even gone so far as to make comparisons between Hitler and Obama and to promote the idea that the president is dangerous."

In March, for example, Beck promoted a right-wing conspiracy theory that the Federal Emergency Management Agency is building concentration camps to house "dissidents."

The United States is "headed towards socialism, totalitarianism beyond your wildest imagination," he said.

Beck later backed away from the FEMA camp theory, but, according to the report, his constantly saying "I fear for my country" breeds hostility towards the government.

A spokesman for Beck declined to comment.

House Financial Services Committee APPROVES Bill to Audit the Fed

Mr. Magoo — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:12:32 GMT

House Financial Services Committee APPROVES Bill to Audit the Fed (Rejecting Watt’s Fake Alternate) and Votes to Rein In Foreign Currency Swaps

Washington’s Blog
Friday, Nov 20th, 2009

Congressman Watt tried to de-rail the bill to audit the Federal Reserve (H.R. 1207) with a fake alternate bill. See this, this, this and this.

Fortunately, the House Financial Services Committee approved H.R. 1207 by 43-26, and rejected Watt’s bill.

In addition, Congressmen Grayson and Paul’s bill requiring written concurrence by the Treasury Secretary prior to the Federal Reserve engaging in a foreign currency swap passed the House Financial Services Committee by a voice vote today.

If you haven’t already seen it, watch Congressman Grayson grill Bernanke about foreign swaps:

If you don’t know what foreign currency swaps are, or why the Fed has been running amok with them, watch Congressman Grayson discuss the amendment:

10 States Where the Poor Pay the Most Unfair Share of Taxes

nanakeser — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:26:06 GMT

(Nov. 19) -- The tax code is unfair and it's the poor and the middle class who are getting the raw end of the deal.

Those are some of the conclusions of a new study released by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, a nonpartisan research group. The report found that after itemized deductions, the richest 1 percent of Americans pay taxes at an average rate of 5.2 percent of their income. Middle-class residents, on average, pay taxes at a rate of 9.4 percent, and the poorest 20 percent pay at a rate of 10.9 percent.

"In effect, what we have is an upside-down system in which the more you earn, the less you pay in taxes," said Matthew Gardner, executive director of ITEP and the principal author of the study. "I don't think anyone would intentionally set out to design a tax code that way."

According to Gardner's findings, the 10 states where "regressive" taxation most significantly tilts in favor of the rich are Washington, Florida, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Illinois, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Alabama.

In Washington, for instance, the poorest 20 percent of residents pay taxes at a rate nearly six times higher than those of the state's richest 1 percent.

Vermont, Delaware and New York, meanwhile, are states with relatively flat, fair tax practices, the study found.

The study's goal was to try to inform future tax policy by creating an understanding of how differing state approaches benefited varying income levels, Gardner said.

"We want to shed light on how tax systems work and help provide a benchmark for judging the current systems," he said, though he stressed that ITEP was not making any specific policy recommendations.

The study's figures were calculated by analyzing and merging the overall affect of the three most common forms of taxes: income, property and sales. In states with no income tax, for instance, sales taxes and fees often account for a larger percentage of state revenue. In general, the report found that income taxes tend to be fairer than property or sales taxes because they graduate depending on salary. Sales taxes, on the other hand, tend to disproportionately target the poor and lower-middle class, because over time those fixed costs account for a much higher percentage of wages than they do for the well-off.

The report comes at a time when cities and states across the country are enacting a host of new taxes and surcharges to try to cover budgetary shortfalls brought on by the recession. In New York, Gov. David Patterson has proposed an "iPod tax" that would add a surcharge on every music download. In California and Pennsylvania, tuition hikes at state colleges and universities are being implemented. Oregon is debating whether to raise income taxes on corporations and the wealthy.

On the federal level, raising taxes remains a taboo subject, but Congress has moved to close tax loopholes for offshore accounts in the hopes of recouping billions of dollars in potential revenue.

Amid this backdrop, Gardner said he hopes his study will help illustrate who is bearing the largest tax burden in the country. "The answer for just about every state," Gardner said, "is the poor and the lower to middle classes."

I Have to Defend Sarah Palin

InnaD — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 19:01:10 GMT

By: Susan Estrich

I really hate defending Sarah Palin. I mean, I don't agree with her on anything. Seeing a woman at her level saying and doing some of the things she says and does is like nails screeching against a blackboard for me. And while she ultimately helps Democrats in any partisan contest, her brand of polarizing politics and efforts to annihilate the moderate wing of the Republican Party ultimately aren't very good for her own party (not my problem) or the country (everyone's problem).

And while I'm at it, it drives me crazy when she goes around blaming the McCain campaign for her mistakes instead of taking responsibility. The list goes on.

The problem is that the media can't seem to figure out that she deserves to be treated like *** Armey or Newt Gingrich or *** Cheney. Disagree with her. Point out that she's wrong more often than she's right, and that she doesn't know what she's talking about on key issues. Call her a quitter, by all means, and a sore sport and a bad loser. Ask her hard questions, or even medium-hard questions, and see if she can answer. Push her on whether she's more interested in fame and glory than making change happen.

Just don't put her on the cover in running shorts.

I'm talking, of course, about the Newsweek cover, which took a picture Palin posed for as part of a spread in Runner's World magazine about how she loves running and used it to turn her into a pinup girl. She is not a girl, and she is not a pinup.

Palin criticized the cover as "sexist and oh-so-expected." She's right. But too many liberals are being quoted praising it. How soon they forget. Calling Gov. Palin the "Caribou Barbie" and "Governor Gidget" actually pushed her numbers higher among women. It's both sexist and stupid. It was only when Palin fell on her face with Katie Couric that many women felt free to abandon her.

The irony is that the cover, far from skewering Palin, as was its clear intent, helps her. The picture overwhelms the words -- "How Do You Solve a Problem Like Sarah? She's Bad News for the GOP and Everyone Else, Too" -- and reduces it to a hit piece. It makes Palin a heroine to the people who hate the liberal media, reinforcing the view that the media are biased against conservatives. It makes women like me horrendously uncomfortable, because sexism is not OK under any circumstances. And it makes nonpolitical, moderate women (you know, the kind who decide every election) more sympathetic to a woman who, on most issues (not just abortion, but healthcare, for instance, and stem cell research), is on the opposite side of them.

Oh, yes, and for sure it will sell books. Magazines, too. Everybody wins except women, who are still eye candy, even if they get to the point of being their party's nominee for vice president. That's the message, and it applies to all of us. It's not a liberal versus conservative issue: I've seen just as bad and worse done to Hillary Clinton. It's about sexism and powerful women and how they can be trivialized. And this is why, once again, I have to defend Sarah Palin.

Six factors and bulls like Jim Rogers drive gold rush

Mr. Magoo — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:51:49 GMT

Six factors and bulls like Jim Rogers drive gold rush

By :Sanjay Vijayakumar

Nov 17 2009

Gold hit a record high of $1,143.60 an ounce on Monday. The yellow metal has been on the upswing amid a weaker dollar, uncertain economic conditions and raising concerns of inflation. Commodities guru Jim Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, who predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999, expects gold to rise $2,000 an ounce over the next decade.
Financial Chronicle takes a look at the key drivers of the gold surge.

Investor demand
Rising interest in commodities, including gold, from investment funds in recent years has been a major factor behind bullion's rally to historic highs. Gold's strong performance in recent years has attracted more players and increased inflows of money into the overall market. Investors, wary of the weak dollar and ultra low interest rates, are turning to gold.

US dollar
The currency market plays a major role in
setting the direction of gold, as bullion prices move in the opposite
direction to the dollar. A weak US currency makes dollar-priced gold cheaper for holders of other currencies and vice versa. US Federal Reserve has said that interest rates will stay at zero for some time, which means the greenback will remain weak.

Central banks’ gold reserves
Central banks hold gold as part of their reserves. Buying or selling of the metal by banks can influence prices. On Tuesday, the Central Bank of Mauritius bought 2 tonnes, worth about $71.7 million, of gold from the IMF. Earlier this month, RBI purchased 200 tonnes for $6.7 billion. IMF is selling gold to shore up its finances.

Political tension
The precious metal is widely considered a ‘safe-haven’, bought in
a flight to quality during uncertain times. Major geo-political events
including bomb blasts, terror attacks and assassinations can induce sharp price rises. Financial market shocks, which cause other asset prices to drop sharply, can also have a similar impact on gold prices.

Supply & demand
Supply and demand fundamentals generally do not play a big role in determining gold prices because of huge above-ground stock of around 158,000 tonnes. Gold is not consumed like other commodities. Peak buying seasons in major consumer nations such as India and China have some influence on the market, but dollar and crude carry more weight.

Oil price
Gold has recently had a strong correlation with crude oil prices, as the metal can be seen as a hedge against oil-led inflation. Perhaps, in anticipation of a possible decline in stocks and bonds due to the Opec cut, investors have started demanding gold. This spurt in demand may have led to higher gold prices. On Tuesday, oil held below $79 a barrel.

Schools let students seek secret abortions

Mr. Magoo — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:48:04 GMT

Schools let students seek secret abortions
Parents not notified when 12-year-olds obtain 'confidential' medical procedures

Posted: November 18, 2009
11:20 pm Eastern

By Chelsea Schilling
© 2009 WorldNetDaily

SACRAMENTO – A 12-year-old girl is prohibited from bringing aspirin to California public schools without a note from her mother or father – but in many California districts she may sign herself out of classes, leave her junior-high campus without parental permission, secretly have an abortion and return to school before the end of the day – and her own family may be none the wiser.

Parents and educators across the state have been in heated debate over school policies allowing children to be excused during class time without parental notification for "confidential medical services" such as abortions, birth control, and drug and mental health services.

They can't educate our kids, but they'll help them get abortions! Education elites have given us the 'dumbest generation' - It's all in "War on Children: How Pop Culture and Public Schools Put Our Kids at Risk"

California's San Juan Unified School District sought to change its own policy from one that prohibits students from being absent without parental knowledge except during medical emergencies to guidelines that would allow a student to leave for a "confidential medical appointment."

San Juan Unified School District proposed policy change

Brad Dacus, founder and president of Pacific Justice Institute, a legal nonprofit, addressed the board at a school-district meeting in Carmichael on Nov. 17 to discuss the policy, along with hundreds of concerned parents who flooded into the meeting and filled the district building lobby.

After much debate and input from the public, the San Juan Unified School District voted 3 to 2 against the policy change. Parents clapped and cheered when they heard the decision.

"We are pleased that the San Juan school board listened to the community and abandoned this disastrous proposal," Dacus said in a statement. "This is a victory for everyone who believes in parental responsibility and local control of school decisions."

They were debating changing the current policy to reflect school administrators' interpretation of California Education Code 4601.1, which states:

Commencing in the fall of the 1986-87 academic year, the governing board of each school district shall, each academic year, notify pupils in grades 7 to 12, inclusive, and the parents or guardians of all pupils enrolled in the districts, that school authorities may excuse any pupil from the school for the purpose of obtaining confidential medical services without the consent of the pupil's parent or guardian.

Pacific Justice Institute staff attorney Matt McReynolds told WND the statute is ambiguous and only says the districts may dismiss students, not that they are required to do so.

"If you use general principles of statutory construction, as we lawyers do in interpreting these things, 'may' is very different than 'must,'" he said. "It doesn't say they must dismiss them, which is how the ACLU, Planned Parenthood and the National Youth Law Center interpret it. It is a district-by-district decision on whether they will tell parents."

McReynolds said a district is not required to become an "accomplice" when children opt for these services without their parents' knowledge.

"It doesn't mean students have to be dismissed during the school day to go do it," he said. "They've got afternoons and weekends if they're bent on doing that. You don't have to make the school a party to it."

McReynolds questioned how children as young as 12, 13 or 14 would be transported to clinics for "confidential medical services" if they are unable to drive and choose not to inform their parents.

"They can't drive themselves anywhere, so some adult or somebody with a driver's license would have to get them to those so-called 'confidential' medical appointments that aren't so 'confidential' after all when you really think about it," he said. "You're talking about an older boyfriend, a boyfriend's parents, maybe even a school official? Somebody has to get them there when they're that young."

McReynolds argues that hiding medical issues from parents may endanger the health and wellbeing of a child.

"A parent who is 100 percent legally and morally responsible for taking care of their minor child may have no real ability to do so if they don't know that their child just had a major medical procedure," he said. "Or in the case of counseling, they may have no idea their child is dealing with substance abuse or suicidal thoughts or any number of other things."

Asked whether a parent might successfully sue if any school district that releases a child for a "confidential medical appointment" and a child's life is endangered, McReynolds replied, "I think they would. We have raised that possibility."

But Rebecca Gudeman, senior attorney at the National Center for Youth Law, told the Sacramento Bee, "The great majority of children will involve their parents in such issues – reproductive health and mental health. It's the 25 percent we care about, in abusive households or in families that don't believe in mental health care."

Planned Parenthood spokeswoman Raquel Simental said she did not agree with the district's decision.

"It's the law that they have access to these services," she told KCRA-TV.

The Pacific Justice Institute has also had success battling similar policies that allowed students to sign out without parental knowledge in other districts, including Modesto, Fairfield-Suisun and San Diego. According to KCRA-TV, Sacramento, Natomas, Twin Rivers and Elk Grove school districts still have policies allowing children to leave campus for "confidential medical services" without parental consent. McReynolds said several California school districts still have similar policies.

He said no lawsuit had been filed with the San Juan Unified School District. The move toward a policy change was recently initiated by school administrators.

"Planned Parenthood and the ACLU tend to always threaten these school districts with lawsuits if they vote differently than those groups want them to vote," he said. "They claim it would be illegal, but they've never actually filed a lawsuit when the school district adopts a parent-friendly policy."

Should a school face a lawsuit for maintaining a policy that requires parental notification, McReynolds said Pacific Justice Institute has offered to "defend any school district that gets embroiled in an actual lawsuit."

WND reported in 2004 when California Attorney General Bill Lockyer issued an opinion that said schools are required to enact confidentiality policies. But amid a grass-roots campaign organized by a traditional-family lobby group, Lockyer backed off his opinion.

McReynolds said many parents aren't aware of guidelines at their childrens' schools. But he said all parents should ask their own school administrators whether their children may be excused without consent, even families who live outside California.

"It's really important for every parent, whether their kids are in public or private school, to find out what the school policies are," he said. "You never know. See what kind of answers you get."

Hacked e-mails reveal global-warming fraud?

Mr. Magoo — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:43:53 GMT

Hacked e-mails reveal global-warming fraud?
Top climate scientists discuss hiding contrary data, marginalizing dissenters

Posted: November 20, 2009
11:27 am Eastern

© 2009 WorldNetDaily

University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit

Officials at a key global warming research center in the United Kingdom have authenticated a series of e-mails and other documents apparently taken from their computer system by a hacker, but they cannot explain what scientists in internal exchanges meant by references to a "trick" that would "hide the decline" of global temperatures nor by instructions to delete contrary data.

Author James Delingpole writes in a London Telegraph column the most damaging revelations indicate climate-change scientists may have "manipulated or suppressed evidence in order to support their cause."

According to the Australian Investigate magazine, the 62 megabyte Zip file with documents, e-mail exchanges and other information from the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit apparently was posted by an unidentified hacker on a Russian web server.

One e-mail said: "I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd (sic) from 1961 for Keith's to hide the decline."

Another expressed internal doubts: "The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate."

Further, an e-mail exchange suggested the suppression of information: "Can you delete any e-mails you may have had with Keith re AR4? Keith will do likewise. He's not in at the moment – minor family crisis."

"And, perhaps most reprehensibly," Delingpole writes, "a long series of communications discussing how best to squeeze dissenting scientists out of the peer review process. How, in other words, to create a scientific climate in which anyone who disagrees with AGW can be written off as a crank, whose views do not have a scrap of authority."

He cites an e-mail: "This was the danger of always criticizing the skeptics for not publishing in the 'peer-reviewed literature.' Obviously, they found a solution to that – take over a journal! So what do we do about this? I think we have to stop considering 'Climate Research' as a legitimate peer-reviewed journal. Perhaps we should encourage our colleagues in the climate research community to no longer submit to, or cite papers in, this journal. We would also need to consider what we tell or request of our more reasonable colleagues who currently sit on the editorial board …What do others think?"

Delingpole observes the world "is currently cooling; electorates are increasingly reluctant to support eco-policies leading to more oppressive regulation, higher taxes and higher utility bills; the tide is turning against Al Gore's Anthropogenic Global Warming theory. The so-called 'skeptical' view is now also the majority view."

Phil Jones, head of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit, confirmed to Investigate magazine the documents appeared authentic.

"It was a hacker. We were aware of this about three or four days ago that someone had hacked into our system and taken and copied loads of data files and e-mails," he said.

"It's completely illegal for somebody to hack into our system," he told the magazine

But Jones denied there was any attempt to mislead or conceal.

"They're talking about proxy data going further back in time, a thousand years, and it's just about how you add on the last few years, because when you get proxy data you sample things like tree rings and ice cores, and they don't always have the last few years," he said.

Jones said he could not recall what he meant when he wrote about a plan to "hide the decline."

In the e-mail, dated 10 years ago, Jones wrote: "Once Tim's got a diagram here we'll send that either later today or first thing tomorrow. I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd [sic] from1961 for Keith's to hide the decline. Mike's series got the annual land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999 for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998. Thanks for the comments, Ray. Cheers, Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit."

The documents also included a message dated last month from Kevin Trenberth to Michal Mann about the "U-turn on climate" by Britain's BBC News.

"Well I have my own article on where the heck is global warming? We are asking that here in Boulder where we have broken records the past two days for the coldest days on record. We had 4 inches of snow. The high the last 2 days was below 30F and the normal is 69F, and it smashed the previous records for these days by 10F. The low was about 18F and also a record low, well below the previous record low. This is January weather (see the Rockies baseball playoff game was canceled on saturday and then played last night in below freezing weather)."

Despite the advocacy of a financially vested former vice president, Al Gore, and others, public opinion about whether mankind is causing an ultimately catastrophic rise in global temperatures is shifting.

U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, has urged members of Congress to consider the joint opinion of nearly 32,000 scientists, including more than 9,000 Ph.D.s, who believe humans likely have little or nothing to do with any "global warming."

The Petition Project, launched some 10 years ago when the first few thousand signatures were gathered, has steadily grown without any special effort or campaign.

But in the last few years, and especially because of the release of Gore's movie "An Inconvenient Truth," the campaign has been reinvigorated.

"Mr. Gore's movie, asserting a 'consensus' and 'settled science' in agreement about human-caused global warming, conveyed the claims about human-caused global warming to ordinary movie goers and to public school children, to whom the film was widely distributed. Unfortunately, Mr. Gore's movie contains many very serious incorrect claims which no informed, honest scientist could endorse," project spokesman and founder Art Robinson has told WND.

Robinson, a research professor of chemistry, co-founded the Linus Pauling Institute of Science and Medicine with Linus Pauling in 1973, and later co-founded the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine.

Paul cited the petition results in his statement to Congress.

"Our energy policies must be based upon scientific truth – not fictional movies or self-interested international agendas," Paul said. "They should be based upon the accomplishments of technological free enterprise that have provided our modern civilization, including our energy industries. That free enterprise must not be hindered by bogus claims about imaginary disasters."

The petition states: "There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth."

Robinson has warned of serious political and economic consequencesof assuming "global warming" results from mankind's actions.

"The campaign to severely ration hydrocarbon energy technology has now been markedly expanded," he said. "In the course of this campaign, many scientifically invalid claims about impending climate emergencies are being made. Simultaneously, proposed political actions to severely reduce hydrocarbon use now threaten the prosperity of Americans and the very existence of hundreds of millions of people in poorer countries," he told WND.

Warned Paul, "Above all, we must never forget our contract with the American people – the Constitution that provides the sole source of legitimacy of our government. That Constitution requires that we preserve the basic human rights of our people – including the right to freely manufacture, use, and sell energy produced by any means they devise – including nuclear, hydrocarbon, solar, wind, or even bicycle generators.

"While it is evident that the human right to produce and use energy does not extend to activities that actually endanger the climate of the Earth upon which we all depend, bogus claims about climate dangers should not be used as a justification to further limit the American people's freedom," Paul said.

CNN Poll: Blame for recession shifting from GOP to Democrats

Mr. Magoo — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:42:36 GMT

CNN Poll: Blame for recession shifting from GOP to Democrats

Posted: November 20th, 2009 09:09 AM ET

From CNN Polling Unit

Washington (CNN) - Nearly two years into the recession, opinion about which political party is responsible for the severe economic downturn is shifting, according to a new national poll.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Friday morning indicates that 38 percent of the public blames Republicans for the country's current economic problems. That's down 15 points from May, when 53 percent blamed the GOP. According to the poll 27 percent now blame the Democrats for the recession, up 6 points from May. Twenty-seven percent now say both parties are responsible for the economic mess.

"The bad news for the Democrats is that the number of Americans who hold the GOP exclusively responsible for the recession has been steadily falling by about two to three points per month," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "At that rate, only a handful of voters will blame the economy on the Republicans by the time next year's midterm elections roll around."

Thirty-six percent of people questioned say that President Barack Obama's policies have improved economic conditions, with 28 percent feeling that the president's programs have made things worse, and 35 percent saying what he's done has had no effect on the economy.

One reason for that, says Holland, may be the growing federal budget deficit: Two-thirds say that the government should balance the budget even in a time of war and recession.

The survey indicates that only 18 percent say the economic conditions in the country today are good, down 3 points from August. Eighty-two percent say economic conditions are poor.

"Some economic indicators may suggest that the economy has turned the corner - but try telling that to the American people," adds Holland. The number of Americans who say that the economy is in good shape - a number that grew steadily through the spring and summer - has now stalled, with fewer than one in five expressing a positive view of current conditions. More than eight in 10 say that economic conditions are in poor shape, with 43 percent calling them very poor.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted November 13-15, with 1,014 adult Americans questioned by telephone. The survey sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Angry Congress lashes out at Obama

Mr. Magoo — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:41:22 GMT

Angry Congress lashes out at Obama

House Republicans call on Geithner to resign as economic woes take a toll

By Brady Dennis, Zachary A. Goldfarb and Neil Irwin

The Washington Post

updated 10:13 a.m. ET, Fri., Nov . 20, 2009

Growing discontent over the economy and frustration with efforts to speed its recovery boiled over Thursday on Capitol Hill in a wave of criticism and outright anger directed at the Obama administration.

Episodes in both houses of Congress exposed the raw nerves of lawmakers flooded with stories of unemployment and economic hardship back home. They also underscored the stiff headwinds that the administration faces as it pushes to enact sweeping changes to the financial regulatory system while also trying to create jobs for ordinary Americans.

President Obama's allies in the Congressional Black Caucus, exasperated by the administration's handling of the economy, unexpectedly blocked one of his top priorities, using a legislative maneuver to postpone the approval of financial reform legislation by a key House committee.

Two buildings away, at a session of the Joint Economic Committee, Republicans escalated their attacks on Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, including a call for his resignation.

"Conservatives agree that as point person, you failed. Liberals are growing in that consensus as well," said Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Tex.). "For the sake of our jobs, will you step down from your post?"

Rep. Michael C. Burgess (R-Tex.) took a different tack. "I don't think that you should be fired," he told Geithner. "I thought you should have never been hired."

Even Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), a friend of the administration, suggested that Geithner had been inconsistent in addressing China's practice of keeping its currency low against the dollar.

And Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) said Wednesday on MSNBC that he thinks Geithner should step down, pointing to his handling of the aftermath of American International Group's meltdown.

Across Capitol Hill, senators signaled their opposition to rushing regulatory reform. While some Democrats voiced reservations about parts of the bill, Republicans went further, faulting Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.) for pushing ahead before the roots of the crisis were understood.

Federal Reserve under scrutiny
Perhaps most troubling for the administration was that one of the few measures to succeed Thursday was an amendment by Rep. Ron Paul (R-Tex.) that would subject the Federal Reserve to unprecedented scrutiny. The amendment, which won bipartisan support in the House Financial Services Committee despite the reservations of administration officials, would allow the Government Accountability Office to audit all of the Fed's operations, including its decisions on interest rates and its transactions with foreign central banks.

Paul and allies in both parties -- more than 300 members of Congress have endorsed the measure -- are looking to increase oversight of an institution they consider partly to blame for the financial crisis. Federal officials and many private economists worry that the amendment could make future central bank policymakers reluctant to take unpopular steps to prevent inflation or support the economy for fear of second-guessing by Congress and government auditors.

The House committee had been set to vote to send the final piece of its regulatory reform package to the House floor after months of debate. That is, until the committee's chairman, Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), told a shocked committee room that passage of the bill would be delayed until Dec. 1 because the Congressional Black Caucus wanted the administration to do more to help African American communities suffering in the economic decline.

Frank told committee members that black lawmakers were "frustrated by the response to the economic situation by the administration." He said the caucus had no issues with the legislation itself. "They want obviously to continue to have some bargaining power with the administration," he said after the hearing.

Worries over minority representation
The caucus itself did not publicly detail its concerns Thursday, but one member, Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), issued a statement: "The recession has created a unique systemic risk that threatens all parts of the African-American community, including the poor and the middle class."

The caucus began discussing its concerns with Frank and the administration several weeks ago. Frank hosted a meeting Monday night between caucus members, Geithner and White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel.

"You're talking about people whose constituents have been badly hammered by this," Frank said. "Given the nature of this recession, there needs to be some more conversations."

Frank said the caucus had concerns about whether minorities were being fairly represented in helping carry out Treasury's bailout programs and other federal efforts to resolve the financial crisis. The government has contracted out much of the work to Wall Street firms.

Congressional aides said the caucus's concerns are similar to those of the Democratic Party's liberal wing. Caucus members are pushing for legislation that would directly lead to new jobs by providing tax benefits, for example, that would provide incentives for home renovations and funding for new infrastructure projects. They also want to extend health-care and unemployment benefits.

Geitner takes a beating over AIG bailout
Meanwhile, Geithner was taking a beating as he urged Congress to pass regulatory reform as quickly as possible, arguing that delay would create uncertainty for businesses across the country. Lawmakers sharply criticized him for his role in the crisis during the tense Joint Economic Committee meeting. They were particularly critical of his involvement in the decision, as president of the New York Fed, to bail out AIG.

But Geithner pressed forward: "To ensure the vitality, the strength and the stability of our economy going forward, we must bring our system of financial regulation into the 21st century. Nobody in my job should ever be in the position again of having to come into a crisis like this without those basic authorities."

Dodd, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, chose the marbled Caucus Room in the Russell Senate Office Building -- site of past hearings on Watergate, Pearl Harbor and the Wall Street abuses during the Great Depression -- to open debate on a massive draft bill designed to achieve the most ambitious reworking of the financial system in decades.

"This is one of those moments in our nation's history that compels us to be bold," Dodd said.

But soon, ranking committee Republican Richard C. Shelby (Ala.) took the floor, and for 18 uninterrupted minutes he opined that nearly every element of Dodd's bill was misinformed, uninformed, unnecessarily rushed or just plain flawed. "This committee has not done the necessary work to even begin discussing changes of this magnitude. Nevertheless, you have laid a bill before the committee," Shelby said. "I will be opposing this legislation. Not because we disagree on its ends, but rather on its means."

Shelby said Dodd was wrong not to conduct an investigation into the causes of the recent financial crisis before pushing forward with legislation. He said rather than ending the problem of institutions that are "too big to fail," the current bill expands the government's ability to bail out big banks. Shelby apologized for the length of his critique, expressed his hope that the two men might "yet find some common ground," and yielded the floor.

"Well," Dodd said in the morning's only moment of levity, "I thank you for the endorsement."

Staff writer David Cho contributed to this report.

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Report: Push Back Age of Cervical Cancer Tests

Mr. Magoo — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:39:51 GMT

Report: Push Back Age of Cervical Cancer Tests

Friday , November 20, 2009

ADVERTISEMENT

CHICAGO —

Women in the United States should start cervical cancer screening at age 21 and most do not need an annual Pap smear, according to new guidelines issued Friday that aim to reduce the risk of unnecessary treatment.

The guidelines from the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists or ACOG now say women younger than 30 should undergo cervical cancer screening once every two years instead of an annual exam. And those age 30 and older can be screened once every three years.

The recommendations are based on scientific evidence that suggests more frequent testing leads to overtreatment, which can harm a young woman's chances of carrying a child full term.

"Overtreatment of minor abnormal pap tests in young women and adolescents can lead to consequences such as preterm labor in some cases. It increases the risk," said Dr. Thomas Herzog of Columbia University in New York, who is chairman of an ACOG subcommittee on gynecologic cancers.

"Preterm delivery has become a huge problem in the United States that has potential serious consequences for the unborn fetus," said Dr. Jennifer Milosavijevic, a specialist in obstetrics and gynecology at Henry Ford Health System in Detroit, who supports the guideline changes.

Avoiding Unnecessary Procedures

"These new guidelines will allow us to avoid doing unnecessary procedures on the sexually active adolescent female," she said in an e-mail.

The guidelines are unlikely to be met with the kind of rebellion that accompanied new *** cancer screening guidelines this week, which were largely based on computer projections, Dr. Len Lichtenfeld, deputy chief medical officer of the American Cancer Society, said in a telephone interview.

"There is a lot more agreement about the science of cervical cancer screening," Lichtenfeld said.

Prior recommendations called for annual cervical cancer screening to start three years after a women first becomes sexually active, or by age 21. Although the rate of HPV infection is high in this population, rates of cervical cancer are very low.

Herzog said the new recommendations are based on studies that suggest starting screening earlier than age 21 causes more harm than benefit.

"We were overdiagnosing and overtreating adolescents and very young women," Herzog said in a telephone interview.

Cervical cancer is a slow-growing cancer caused by exposure to certain strains of the human papillomavirus (HPV), a common sexually transmitted disease among women and men.

"Women do not get cervical cancer first. They acquire HPV, the sexually transmitted virus that causes precancerous abnormalities of the cervix and cervical cancer. It takes years to progress from an HPV-infection to full-blown cervical cancer," Milosavijevic said.

For that reason, she said changing the screening interval will not mean more cervical cancers will be missed. She said most deaths from cervical cancer in the United States happen in people who are screened infrequently, or not at all.

"The take-home message for women is that you should still get your pap smear screening," Milosavijevic said.

HPV is the most common sexually transmitted disease in the world. About 20 million Americans currently are infected with HPV, according to the CDC.

In the past 30 years, cervical cancer rates in the United States have fallen by more than half, due in large part to widespread use of cervical cancer screening.

Senate health care bill creates new marriage penalty

Mr. Magoo — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:38:17 GMT

Senate health care bill creates new marriage penalty

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Stephen Dinan and David M. Dickson THE WASHINGTON TIMES

Senate Democrats' health care bill would create a new marriage penalty by imposing a tax on individuals who make $200,000 annually but hitting married couples making just $50,000 more.

That's one of 17 new taxes imposed by the bill, which also creates a levy on elective plastic surgery - some call it "botax" - and places a 40 percent excise tax on those who have generous health care plans.

"If you have insurance, you get taxed. If you don't have insurance, you get taxed. If you need a life-saving medical device, you get taxed. If you need prescription medicines, you get taxed," said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Kentucky Republican, who is leading the fight against the bill.

The new taxes would be used to fund an expansion of government medical programs and to fund subsidies for lower-income individuals to buy insurance, extending health care coverage to 94 percent of eligible non-elderly Americans.

Democrats said the bill will offer lower health care costs for small businesses and families, and said the new taxes are aimed at upper-income earners, so costs would not go up for the middle class. They said that makes good on President Obama's campaign pledge not to increase taxes on families making less than $250,000 a year, which explains the reason for the new marriage penalty.

"We wanted to make this provision consistent with the president's pledge not to increase taxes on singles making under $200,000 and married couples making under $250,000," said Jim Manley, a spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who wrote the Senate bill.

"Yes, this structure can create a 'marriage penalty' for some couples. It also creates a 'marriage bonus' for others," he said. "A married couple with one wage earner can earn up to $250,000 without facing this higher tax, whereas a single person in the same job with the same pay would be hit by it."

But a married couple in which each earner makes $150,000 would be hit with the tax, whereas an unmarried couple living together with the same incomes would not.

Ryan Ellis, tax policy director at Americans for Tax Reform, said the new marriage penalty comes on top of an existing one that's always been part of the payroll tax, which funds Social Security and Medicare.

He said when the payroll tax was created to fund Social Security during the New Deal, lawmakers didn't anticipate the freelance of two-income families, so there's always been a sort of marriage penalty for couples whose incomes topped the single-earner income taxation level.

Such penalties have been thorny issues in the tax codes for years.

The new tax would rise from 1.45 percent to 1.95 percent for singles making $200,000 a year and couples making $250,000.

Congress earlier this decade tried to reduce the marriage penalty in the income tax code by adjusting the standard deduction for single taxpayers and married couples and expanding the 15 percent tax bracket for couples filing joint tax returns.

Mr. Ellis said another problem with Democrats' plan is that the new payroll tax is not indexed for inflation, even though wage growth is about 5 percent a year. That means the tax will capture an ever-larger share of taxpayers.

"Fifteen years from now, someone who today is earning $100,000, if their wage growth just grows on average, 15 years from now they're going to be paying this tax," Mr. Ellis said.

The plastic surgery tax could increase the cost of nips and tucks by imposing a 5 percent tax on the cost of such surgeries. The tax is slated to go into effect Jan. 1 and is expected to raise $5.8 billion over 10 years. It would cover all elective procedures, whether covered by insurance or not, but would not be levied on surgeries intended to repair personal injuries.

Some of the taxes are already running into political trouble with Democrats' core supporters.

The Teamsters union on Thursday blasted the proposal to impose a 40 percent excise tax on "Cadillac" high-value health insurance plans, saying it would threaten the benefit-rich coverage unions have fought hard to win for their workers.

"Any claim that it affects only 'Cadillac' plans and thus the wealthy is misleading," said Teamsters President James P. Hoffa Jr. "This tax will fall on one-third of Americans in 10 years. ... The idea that this tax will curtail rising premiums is just dead wrong."

The tax is slated to go into effect in 2013 and would apply to individual policies worth $8,500 or family policies worth $23,000. A slightly higher threshold would apply for early retirees and those in high-risk professions.

Budget analysts said they expect that employers and consumers will start to ditch the high-value plans and instead pay the money to workers in higher wages and salaries, so most of the nearly $150 billion in revenue on which Democrats are counting from the provision would come from higher income taxes.

"Put a tax on my high-premium health plan and suddenly it's not such a good deal," said Roberton Williams, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center. "I'd rather have the cash."

Several relatively small tax increases will be aimed at health savings accounts and medical savings accounts. One will change the definitions for medical expenses that qualify as itemized deductions. Another will raise the penalties for withdrawing funds from these vehicles. A third would limit health-related flexible spending arrangements.

"All of these changes are designed to make health savings accounts less attractive and cripple consumer-directed health care plans," said Michael Cannon, director of Health Policy Studies at the Cato Institute. Altogether, they would raise about $20 billion through 2019.

Jennifer Haberkorn and S.A. Miller contributed to this report.

Firefighter catches heat for anti-Obama stickers

Mr. Magoo — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:36:45 GMT

Firefighter catches heat for anti-Obama stickers
Banned decal declares, 'Somewhere in Kenya, a village is missing its idiot'

Posted: November 20, 2009
12:25 am Eastern

By Chelsea Schilling
© 2009 WorldNetDaily

Hatford firefighter Mike Di'Giacomo's bumper sticker

A firefighter says he is in hot water with his department after his supervisors noticed his anti-Obama bumper stickers and banned him from parking inside the firehouse based on his political views.

"It's freedom of speech as far as I'm concerned," Hartford, Conn., firefighter Mike Di'Giacomo told WFSB-TV. "This is my personal vehicle."

Di'Giacomo has worked for the fire department for 10 years. He said a supervisor noticed his stickers and told him he could not park his SUV inside the firehouse, something his fellow firefighters are allowed to do.

The bumper stickers read:

"Somewhere in Kenya, a village is missing its idiot."

"I'll keep my guns, freedom and money. You keep the change."

"Obama Bin Lyin. Impeach Now!"

"He (Di'Giacomo's supervisor) said that the union, corporation counsel and downtown were all in agreement that I could not park inside of the firehouse anymore," Di'Giacomo explained. "However, I spoke to the union president this morning and said he was not aware of any such agreement and that I was welcome to come down and file a grievance, which I will do."

Di'Giacomo's bumper sticker

The Hartford Police Department declined to comment on its purported decision to ban Di'Giacomo's vehicle from the firehouse.

Di'Giacomo told WFSB-TV he is refusing to remove the stickers, regardless of the chief's reasoning behind the decision.

Note: Concerned individuals may contact the Hartford Fire Department.

Obama may put Americans under world judges' power

Mr. Magoo — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:34:43 GMT

Obama may put Americans under world judges' power
International Criminal Court issues are focus of delegation to The Hague

Posted: November 19, 2009
9:00 pm Eastern

By Michael Carl
© 2009 WorldNetDaily

International Criminal Court

President Obama has dispatched a delegation this week to The Hague to explore issues involving the United States' possible participation in the International Criminal Court, an organization critics charge could be used to prosecute Americans under international legal standards for actions that are not crimes in the U.S.

Andy Laney of the U.S. State Department confirmed the delegation is comprised of members of the State Department as well as the Defense Department. He said they were dispatched on a week-long trip because of U.S. concerns over how "aggression" is defined internationally.

"There is an inter-agency party, half from the State Department, half from the Defense Department, there to engage other delegations on matters of U.S. interest and specifically over our concerns on the definition of the crime of aggression," he said.

Critics, however, warn that they believe former U.S. war crimes prosecutor Ambassador Stephen Rapp is on a trip that involves more than just the definition of a word.

"The Obama administration would like the U.S. to be a party to the court," said Brett Schaefer, an international regulatory expert with the Heritage Foundation.

"The Obama administration would like to establish closer ties with the ICC if it turns out the U. S. can join the court. The objective here is to address the major objections to the U. S. joining the court," he said.

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White House officials declined to comment.

The court was introduced to the U.S. when President Bill Clinton signed the Rome Statute in 1998. But President George W. Bush pulled the U. S. out in 2003 over concerns that the ICC might prosecute American soldiers for war crime charges coming from the U. S. campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The concern was that the ICC doesn't recognize many of the U.S. Constitution's provisions protecting defendants in criminal trials, such as the right to a trial by jury and protections against double jeopardy.

"The meeting at The Hague is also in preparation for the Rome Statute's review in May of 2010," Schaefer said. "Mr. Rapp is there to find out if (the 108) member states are interested in amending the document to address U.S. concerns. Ambassador Rapp is there to learn how substantial the barriers to the U.S. joining the court actually are."

Laney admitted it was a change in U.S. direction that prompted the trip.

"The decision to send Ambassador Rapp reflects the commitment of this administration to engage the international community on issues that affect our foreign policy interests," Laney said.

"Ambassador Rapp says he wants the U. S. to join the ICC. Since coming into office, President Obama says he wants the U. S. to join and Secretary of State Clinton says it's unfortunate that the U. S. is not a part of the ICC," Schaefer said.

"The previous administration in its early years sought to amend the treaty to alleviate U. S. concerns ... the treaty would intrude on U. S. policy and its obligations overseas," Schaefer said. "That effort failed. So, the Bush Administration in 2003 sent a letter to the Secretary General of the U. N. saying it no longer considered itself bound to the jurisdiction of the ICC."

Schaefer said the process as it now is set up presents dangers.

"Israel took action in Gaza earlier this year to attack Hamas and knock out the Hamas rocket launchers in the Gaza Strip," he said. "Israel took enormous cautionary measures to prevent civilian casualties. Even though Israel and the Palestinian Authority are not signatory members of the ICC, the ICC is still investigating the Israeli military to see if they can prosecute members of the Israeli Army for war crimes."

Mathew Staver, lead attorney for Liberty Counsel and dean of Liberty University Law School, said U.S. membership in the ICC would be a mistake.

"This administration is globalist and transnationalist and wants to bring this country into the global system. The U.S. stands to have its citizens being prosecuted by the international court in The Hague and have its citizens come under the world court's jurisdiction," he said.

Schaefer confirmed Staver's fears.

"Supposing the U. S. engages in a military action and that action results in civilian casualties. We do an investigation of the matter and find no guilty party. If we are a member of the court, if we are a party to the Rome Statute, the ICC at that point has the opportunity to second-guess us," he said. "They may be able to use evidence and they may be able to pursue routes of trial that would not be portable in the U. S. because of the different standards established in the U. S. legal system and the rules set forth in the Rome Statute."

His warning is that the ICC could, "in essence … come and prosecute U.S. citizens, U.S. soldiers, U.S. officials for actions the U.S. deems entirely lawful."

He believes the Obama White House will begin the push for ratification after the May 2010 review of the treaty.

"After the May review is when I believe the administration will seek to go to Congress to make the changes in our system necessary that will allow us to participate in the ICC," he said.

Staver said Americans should be worried.

"Everything anyone has ever heard about the globalist system is being promoted by this administration," he said. "President Obama definitely wants the U. S. to be a part of a transnational, global system."

WND columnist David Limbaugh has raised similar concerns.

"Transnationalists," he wrote, "believe that American judges, in interpreting our Constitution, can resort to this 'community of reason' (foreign laws) to choose between two 'plausible' legal positions."

It is the global community, he wrote, that such transnationalists "look to" to determine standards.

In his book, "Global Deception," author Joseph Klein warns that the International Criminal Court is just one building block of a "brave new world" already under way.

He said the court would have "secret proceedings that would make terrorist trials look open by comparison" and suggested the plan is for them to "take precedence over the U.S. judicial system."

Geithner Sees "Economic Improvement" As Mortgage Delinquencies Hit All Time High

Mr. Magoo — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:27:20 GMT

Geithner Sees "Economic Improvement" As Mortgage Delinquencies Hit All Time High

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/19/2009 10:19 -0500

We'll have whatever Timmy is drinking. Even as Mr. Geithner, in prepared congressional testimony, claims that the economy is "recovering", the MBA announced yet another record number of mortgage delinquencies. At over 14%, the number of American homeowners either in delinquency or in foreclosure was an all-time record in September, representing a ninth straight quarterly increase. According to the AP: "The Mortgage Bankers Association's quarterly report adds to fears that the housing market's recovery could be thwarted by the continuing surge in home loan defaults, especially as the unemployment rate keeps rising. Lost jobs, rather than the shady loans made during the housing boom, are now the main reason homeowners fall into default." Our hope is that maybe Mr. Geithner will also testify also as to what particular brand of Kool-Aid he drinks when he makes such baseless and irresponsible statements.

The biggest looming threat - heretofore considered safe Prime loans: "Prime fixed-rate loans continue to represent the largest share of foreclosures started and the biggest driver of the increase in foreclosures. 33 percent of foreclosures started in the third quarter were on prime fixed-rate and loans and those loans were 44 percent of the quarterly increase in foreclosures. The foreclosure numbers for prime fixed-rate loans will get worse because those loans represented 54 percent of the quarterly increase in loans 90 days or more past due but not yet in foreclosure."

The full MBA report below:

Delinquencies Continue to Climb in Latest MBA National Delinquency Survey

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties rose to a seasonally adjusted rate of 9.64 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the third quarter of 2009, up 40 basis points from the second quarter of 2009, and up 265 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. The non-seasonally adjusted delinquency rate increased 108 basis points from 8.86 percent in the second quarter of 2009 to 9.94 percent this quarter.

Top Line Results

The delinquency rate breaks the record set last quarter. The records are based on MBA data dating back to 1972.

The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans somewhere in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.47 percent, an increase of 17 basis points from the second quarter of 2009 and 150 basis points from one year ago. The combined percentage of loans in foreclosure or at least one payment past due was 14.41 percent on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the highest ever recorded in the MBA delinquency survey.

The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.42 percent, up six basis points from last quarter and up 35 basis points from one year ago.

The percentages of loans 90 days or more past due, loans in foreclosure, and foreclosures started all set new record highs. The percentage of loans 30 days past due is still below the record set in the second quarter of 1985.

Increases Driven by Prime and FHA Loans

“Despite the recession ending in mid-summer, the decline in mortgage performance continues. Job losses continue to increase and drive up delinquencies and foreclosures because mortgages are paid with paychecks, not percentage point increases in GDP. Over the last year, we have seen the ranks of the unemployed increase by about 5.5 million people, increasing the number of seriously delinquent loans by almost 2 million loans and increasing the rate of new foreclosures from 1.07 percent to 1.42 percent,” said Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s Chief Economist.

“Prime fixed-rate loans continue to represent the largest share of foreclosures started and the biggest driver of the increase in foreclosures. 33 percent of foreclosures started in the third quarter were on prime fixed-rate and loans and those loans were 44 percent of the quarterly increase in foreclosures. The foreclosure numbers for prime fixed-rate loans will get worse because those loans represented 54 percent of the quarterly increase in loans 90 days or more past due but not yet in foreclosure.

“The performance of prime adjustable rate loans, which include pay-option ARMs in the MBA survey, continue to deteriorate with the foreclosure rate on those loans for the first time exceeding the rate for subprime fixed-rate loans. In contrast, both subprime fixed-rate and subprime adjustable rate loans saw decreases in foreclosures.

“The foreclosure rate on FHA loans also increased, despite having a large increase in the number of FHA-insured loans outstanding. The number of FHA loans outstanding has increased by about 1.1 million over the last year. This increase in the denominator depresses the delinquency and foreclosure percentages. If we assume these newly-originated loans are not the ones defaulting and remove the big denominator increase from the calculation results, the foreclosure rate would be1.76 percent rather than 1.31 percent reported.

“Once again the states of Florida, California, Arizona and Nevada have a disproportionate share of the mortgage problems. They had 43 percent of all foreclosures started in the third quarter, down only slightly from 44 percent both last quarter and the third quarter last year. They had 37 percent of the nation’s prime fixed-rate loan foreclosure starts and 67 percent of the prime ARM foreclosure starts. As of the end of September, 25 percent of the mortgages in Florida were at least one payment past due or in foreclosure.

“The outlook is that delinquency rates and foreclosure rates will continue to worsen before they improve. First, it is unlikely the employment picture will get better until sometime next year and even then jobs will increase at a very slow pace. Perhaps more importantly, there is no reason to expect that when the economy begins to add more jobs, those jobs will be in areas with the biggest excess housing inventory and the highest delinquency rates. Second, the number of loans 90 days or more past due or in foreclosure is now a little over 4 million as compared with 3.9 million new and previously occupied homes currently for sale, although there is likely some overlap between the two numbers. The ultimate resolution of these seriously delinquent loans will put added pressure on the hardest hit sections of the country.”

Change from last quarter (second quarter of 2009)

The seasonally adjusted delinquency rate increased 43 basis points for prime loans (from 6.41 percent to 6.84 percent), 107 basis points for subprime loans (from 25.35 percent to 26.42 percent), and two basis points for VA loans (from 8.06 percent to 8.08 percent). The delinquency rate for FHA loans decreased six basis points (from 14.42 percent to 14.36 percent). The non-seasonally adjusted delinquency rate for FHA loans however, increased 134 basis points this quarter (from 13.70 percent to 15.04 percent).

The non-seasonally adjusted percentage of loans in the foreclosure process increased 20 basis points for prime loans (from 3.00 percent to 3.20 percent), and increased 30 basis points for subprime loans (from 15.05 percent to 15.35 percent). FHA loans saw a 34 basis point increase in foreclosure inventory rate (from 2.98 percent to 3.32 percent), while the foreclosure inventory rate for VA loans increased 22 basis points (from 2.07 percent to 2.29 percent).

The non-seasonally adjusted foreclosure starts rate increased 13 basis points for prime loans (from 1.01 percent to 1.14 percent), increased 16 basis points for FHA loans (from 1.15 percent to 1.31 percent), and increased 19 basis points for VA loans (from 0.68 percent to 0.87 percent). This rate decreased 37 basis points for subprime loans (from 4.13 percent to 3.76 percent).

The seriously delinquent rate, the non-seasonally adjusted percentage of loans that are 90 days or more delinquent, or in the process of foreclosure, was up from both last quarter and from last year. This measure is designed to account for inter-company differences on when a loan enters the foreclosure process.

Compared with last quarter, the rate increased 82 basis points for prime loans (from 5.44 percent to 6.26 percent), 216 basis points for subprime loans (from 26.52 percent to 28.68 percent), 89 basis points for FHA loans (from 7.78 percent to 8.67 percent), and 37 basis points for VA loans (from 4.69 percent to 5.06 percent).

Change from last year (third quarter of 2008)

The seasonally adjusted delinquency rate increased 250 basis points for prime loans, 639 basis points for subprime loans, 144 basis points for FHA loans, and 80 basis points for VA loans.

The foreclosure inventory rate increased 162 basis points for prime loans, 280 basis points for subprime loans, 100 basis points for FHA loans, and 83 basis points for VA loans.

The foreclosure starts rate increased 35 basis points overall, 53 basis points for prime loans, 36 basis points for FHA loans, and 28 basis points for VA loans. The starts rate decreased 47 basis points for subprime loans.

The seriously delinquent rate increased 339 basis points for prime loans, 912 basis points for subprime loans, 262 basis points for FHA loans, and 161 basis points for VA loans.

Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for potential 'global collapse'

Mr. Magoo — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:24:12 GMT

Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for potential 'global collapse'

Société Générale has advised clients to be ready for a possible "global economic collapse" over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive investments to avoid wealth destruction.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Published: 6:12PM GMT 18 Nov 2009

Comments 184 | Comment on this article

Explosion of debt: Japan's public debt could reach as much as 270pc of GDP in the next two years. A bullet train is pictured speeding past Mount Fuji in Fuji city, west of Tokyo Photo: Reuters

In a report entitled "Worst-case debt scenario", the bank's asset team said state rescue packages over the last year have merely transferred private liabilities onto sagging sovereign shoulders, creating a fresh set of problems.

Overall debt is still far too high in almost all rich economies as a share of GDP (350pc in the US), whether public or private. It must be reduced by the hard slog of "deleveraging", for years.

'Debt levels risk another crisis'

"As yet, nobody can say with any certainty whether we have in fact escaped the prospect of a global economic collapse," said the 68-page report, headed by asset chief Daniel Fermon. It is an exploration of the dangers, not a forecast.

Under the French bank's "Bear Case" scenario (the gloomiest of three possible outcomes), the dollar would slide further and global equities would retest the March lows. Property prices would tumble again. Oil would fall back to $50 in 2010.

Governments have already shot their fiscal bolts. Even without fresh spending, public debt would explode within two years to 105pc of GDP in the UK, 125pc in the US and the eurozone, and 270pc in Japan. Worldwide state debt would reach $45 trillion, up two-and-a-half times in a decade.

(UK figures look low because debt started from a low base. Mr Ferman said the UK would converge with Europe at 130pc of GDP by 2015 under the bear case).

The underlying debt burden is greater than it was after the Second World War, when nominal levels looked similar. Ageing populations will make it harder to erode debt through growth. "High public debt looks entirely unsustainable in the long run. We have almost reached a point of no return for government debt," it said.

Inflating debt away might be seen by some governments as a lesser of evils.

If so, gold would go "up, and up, and up" as the only safe haven from fiat paper money. Private debt is also crippling. Even if the US savings rate stabilises at 7pc, and all of it is used to pay down debt, it will still take nine years for households to reduce debt/income ratios to the safe levels of the 1980s.

The bank said the current crisis displays "compelling similarities" with Japan during its Lost Decade (or two), with a big difference: Japan was able to stay afloat by exporting into a robust global economy and by letting the yen fall. It is not possible for half the world to pursue this strategy at the same time.

SocGen advises bears to sell the dollar and to "short" cyclical equities such as technology, auto, and travel to avoid being caught in the "inherent deflationary spiral". Emerging markets would not be spared. Paradoxically, they are more leveraged to the US growth than Wall Street itself. Farm commodities would hold up well, led by sugar.

Mr Fermon said junk bonds would lose 31pc of their value in 2010 alone. However, sovereign bonds would "generate turbo-charged returns" mimicking the secular slide in yields seen in Japan as the slump ground on. At one point Japan's 10-year yield dropped to 0.40pc. The Fed would hold down yields by purchasing more bonds. The European Central Bank would do less, for political reasons.

SocGen's case for buying sovereign bonds is controversial. A number of funds doubt whether the Japan scenario will be repeated, not least because Tokyo itself may be on the cusp of a debt compound crisis.

Mr Fermon said his report had electrified clients on both sides of the Atlantic. "Everybody wants to know what the impact will be. A lot of hedge funds and bankers are worried," he said.

Stagnating Temperatures

Mr. Magoo — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:22:03 GMT

Stagnating Temperatures

Climatologists Baffled by Global Warming Time-Out

By Gerald Traufetter

Global warming appears to have stalled. Climatologists are puzzled as to why average global temperatures have stopped rising over the last 10 years. Some attribute the trend to a lack of sunspots, while others explain it through ocean currents.

At least the weather in Copenhagen is likely to be cooperating. The Danish Meteorological Institute predicts that temperatures in December, when the city will host the United Nations Climate Change Conference, will be one degree above the long-term average.

Otherwise, however, not much is happening with global warming at the moment. The Earth's average temperatures have stopped climbing since the beginning of the millennium, and it even looks as though global warming could come to a standstill this year.

Ironically, climate change appears to have stalled in the run-up to the upcoming world summit in the Danish capital, where thousands of politicians, bureaucrats, scientists, business leaders and environmental activists plan to negotiate a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Billions of euros are at stake in the negotiations.

Reached a Plateau

The planet's temperature curve rose sharply for almost 30 years, as global temperatures increased by an average of 0.7 degrees Celsius (1.25 degrees Fahrenheit) from the 1970s to the late 1990s. "At present, however, the warming is taking a break," confirms meteorologist Mojib Latif of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences in the northern German city of Kiel. Latif, one of Germany's best-known climatologists, says that the temperature curve has reached a plateau. "There can be no argument about that," he says. "We have to face that fact."

Even though the temperature standstill probably has no effect on the long-term warming trend, it does raise doubts about the predictive value of climate models, and it is also a political issue. For months, climate change skeptics have been gloating over the findings on their Internet forums. This has prompted many a climatologist to treat the temperature data in public with a sense of shame, thereby damaging their own credibility.

"It cannot be denied that this is one of the hottest issues in the scientific community," says Jochem Marotzke, director of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg. "We don't really know why this stagnation is taking place at this point."

Just a few weeks ago, Britain's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research added more fuel to the fire with its latest calculations of global average temperatures. According to the Hadley figures, the world grew warmer by 0.07 degrees Celsius from 1999 to 2008 and not by the 0.2 degrees Celsius assumed by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. And, say the British experts, when their figure is adjusted for two naturally occurring climate phenomena, El Niño and La Niña, the resulting temperature trend is reduced to 0.0 degrees Celsius -- in other words, a standstill.

The differences among individual regions of the world are considerable. In the Arctic, for example, temperatures rose by almost three degrees Celsius, which led to a dramatic melting of sea ice. At the same time, temperatures declined in large areas of North America, the western Pacific and the Arabian Peninsula. Europe, including Germany, remains slightly in positive warming territory.

Mixed Messages

But a few scientists simply refuse to believe the British calculations. "Warming has continued in the last few years," says Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). However, Rahmstorf is more or less alone in his view. Hamburg Max Planck Institute scientist Jochem Marotzke, on the other hand, says: "I hardly know any colleagues who would deny that it hasn't gotten warmer in recent years."

The controversy sends confusing and mixed messages to the lay public. Why is there such a vigorous debate over climate change, even though it isn't getting warmer at the moment? And how can it be that scientists cannot even arrive at a consensus on changes in temperatures, even though temperatures are constantly being measured?

The global temperature-monitoring network consists of 517 weather stations. But each reading is only a tiny dot on the big world map, and it has to be extrapolated to the entire region with the help of supercomputers. Besides, there are still many blind spots, the largest being the Arctic, where there are only about 20 measuring stations to cover a vast area. Climatologists refer to the problem as the "Arctic hole."

The scientists at the Hadley Center simply used the global average value for the hole, ignoring the fact that it has become significantly warmer in the Arctic, says Rahmstorf. But a NASA team from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, which does make the kinds of adjustments for the Arctic data that Rahmstorf believes are necessary, arrives at a flat temperature curve for the last five years that is similar to that of their British colleagues.

Marotzke and Leibniz Institute meteorologist Mojib Latif are even convinced that the fuzzy computing done by Rahmstorf is counterproductive. "We have to explain to the public that greenhouse gases will not cause temperatures to keep rising from one record temperature to the next, but that they are still subject to natural fluctuations," says Latif. For this reason, he adds, it is dangerous to cite individual weather-related occurrences, such as a drought in Mali or a hurricane, as proof positive that climate change is already fully underway.

"Perhaps we suggested too strongly in the past that the development will continue going up along a simple, straight line. In reality, phases of stagnation or even cooling are completely normal," says Latif.

The Difficulties of Predicting the Climate

Climatologists use their computer models to draw temperature curves that continue well into the future. They predict that the average global temperature will increase by about three degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century, unless humanity manages to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, no one really knows what exactly the world climate will look like in the not-so-distant future, that is, in 2015, 2030 or 2050.

This is because it is not just human influence but natural factors that affect the Earth's climate. For instance, currents in the world's oceans are subject to certain cycles, as is solar activity. Major volcanic eruptions can also curb rising temperatures in the medium term. The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991, for example, caused world temperatures to drop by an average of 0.5 degrees Celsius, thereby prolonging a cooler climate phase that had begun in the late 1980s.

But the Mount Pinatubo eruption happened too long ago to be related to the current slowdown in global warming. So what is behind this more recent phenomenon?

Weaker Solar Activity

The fact is that the sun is weakening slightly. Its radiation activity is currently at a minimum, as evidenced by the small number of sunspots on its surface. According to calculations performed by a group of NASA scientists led by David Rind, which were recently published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, this reduced solar activity is the most important cause of stagnating global warming.

Latif, on the other hand, attributes the stagnation to so-called Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). This phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean allows a larger volume of cold deep-sea water to rise to the surface at the equator. According to Latif, this has a significant cooling effect on the Earth's atmosphere.

With his team at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Latif has been one of the first to develop a model to create medium-term prognoses for the next five to 10 years. "We are slowly starting to attempt (such models)," says Marotzke, who is also launching a major project in this area, funded by the Federal Ministry for Research and Technology.

Despite their current findings, scientists agree that temperatures will continue to rise in the long term. The big question is: When will it start getting warmer again?

If the deep waters of the Pacific are, in fact, the most important factor holding up global warming, climate change will remain at a standstill until the middle of the next decade, says Latif. But if the cooling trend is the result of reduced solar activity, things could start getting warmer again much sooner. Based on past experience, solar activity will likely increase again in the next few years.

Betting on Warmer Temperatures

The Hadley Center group expects warming to resume in the coming years. "That resumption could come as a bit of a jolt," says Hadley climatologist Adam Scaife, explaining that natural cyclical warming would then be augmented by the warming effect caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

While climatologists at conferences engage in passionate debates over when temperatures will start rising again, global warming's next steps have also become the subject of betting activity.

Climatologist Stefan Rahmstorf is so convinced that his predictions will be correct in the end that he is willing to back up his conviction with a €2,500 ($3,700) bet. "I will win," says Rahmstorf.

His adversary Latif turned down the bet, saying that the matter was too serious for gambling. "We are scientists, not poker players."

Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan

Christian academy lockdown

Mr. Magoo — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:19:49 GMT

By Eileen Faust, Special to the Local News

Click to enlarge

NORTH COVENTRY — A misunderstanding about the visit of a parent to West-Mont Christian Academy's elementary school led to the evacuation and search of the school building Tuesday morning.

About 7:55 a.m., an "agitated" parent arrived at the elementary school building at 843 S. Hanover St. and asked to speak to a kindergarten teacher, supposedly about a student, according to Dr. James Smock, West-Mont administrator, who was interviewed after the incident.

The parent was escorted to the lobby by another teacher because the teachers were participating in devotions, according to a school news release issued Tuesday afternoon. Township Police Chief Robert Schurr said the visitor had told the other teacher that he had been sent to the elementary school by someone at the main office. The teacher advised the visitor to wait in the lobby, then the teacher's attention was "drawn away by other students," according to police.

"As later seen on our video surveillance cameras, instead of waiting, the parent went upstairs and viewed various art works on the walls, waiting for the teacher to arrive," a news release issued by Smock read. "When the teacher came, there was a fruitful discussion, after which the parent left the building."

According to Smock, classes had not yet started and students weren't confined to particular classrooms at the time of the incident.

When the teacher returned to check on the visitor and could not find him, the school administration was alerted, Smock said.

"His lack of presence concerned other staff members who thought that the individual may have been an unwanted visitor" because they saw him roaming the halls, the press release from the school said.

Fearing problems, school officials evacuated the students and immediately contacted police about 8:34 a.m., according to a news release from police.

"The children were evacuated to the back building, the police were summoned, and campus lockdown procedures were implemented," according to Smock's news release.

"Because of our cooperation with the police department here and our safety team that was in place, no children were at risk," said Smock.

Students were taken to the gym at the middle school/high school building.

Police called in the Chesmont Emergency Response Team, who were in training Tuesday in the township, to assist in clearing the building. They were assisted by three K-9 officers from North Coventry and Pottstown police departments.

Warwick Child Care locations on East Cedarville Road and Urner Street were both notified about the potential danger and were advised to go into lockdown, Schurr said. Owen J. Roberts school security was also alerted to the situation since North Coventry Elementary School is on Kemp Road, south of East Cedarville Road, but that school did not go into lockdown, according to school officials.

South Hanover Street, between Route 724 and Cedarville Road, was shut down by fire police as officers from area police departments, the state police and the response team surrounded the building.

Area residents, while not advised by police that it was necessary to do so, were staying inside their homes and away from the scene as the response team entered the building, guns raised, about 10:30 a.m.

The team could be seen moving past windows and along the roof as they searched for any signs of an intruder.

One area resident, who was watching the incident unfold from her back yard, said the building had many nooks and crannies to it, making it hard to search.

About 11:14 a.m. the response team declared the building clear of occupants and South Hanover Street reopened to traffic.

The parent was not found in the building, officials said.

Schurr said the parent was identified by school staff and not considered a threat, though officials would be talking to him about the incident.

Smock said students returned to the elementary school, where they ate lunch and classes resumed.

"We would like to express our appreciation for the quick response received from the North Coventry Police and fire departments, the Chester County Emergency Response Team, and the Pottstown Police Department," read the release from Smock. "Within a matter of minutes, they had secured our campus. We were in good hands with their cooperative efforts."

Comments

The following are comments from the readers. In no way do they represent the view of dailylocal.com.

cowslip wrote on Nov 18, 2009 7:25 AM:

" We live in a crazy world where this sort of reaction is considered necessary. "

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allrightythen wrote on Nov 18, 2009 7:46 AM:

" yeah thanks to all the crazies for making this very unnecessary and wasting tax payers money "

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Jean Valjean wrote on Nov 18, 2009 7:47 AM:

" This is much ado about nothing. Glad to see my tax-dollars at such productive 'work,' but such silliness is not news worthy of this extensive coverage. After all, other than police accidental-discharge, no one was at risk. "

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it's a wrap wrote on Nov 18, 2009 8:26 AM:

" Some people take thier Job way to seriously. Why didn't the teacher who met with the parent put two and two together or why didn't the parent sign in like most parents do when they walk into the school. Sounds like the school needs a new check in policy. "

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My 2 Cents wrote on Nov 18, 2009 8:27 AM:

" This is too ridiculous for words. I'm speechless. Everyone involved (except the harmless parent, minding his own business), admiring the students artwork then left to go to work, no doubt. They owe him a major apology. You know word got out who this parent is in that school. If I were him, I would be none too happy to be assumed of being the Virginia Tech psycho.
Other waste of taxpayers money. "

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yac24 wrote on Nov 18, 2009 9:07 AM:

" Ok, usually I don't respond to posts but the several post before mine struck nerve with me. Yes, we do live in a different world where schools are no longer concidered a "safe haven" for students or teachers and yes sometimes events like this are acted apon with an elevated response from emergency services, but in a case like this I would much rather see the type of response that was provided then for law enforcement or the teacher who reported it to down grade the situation and potentially over look a terrible tradidgy in the making. I applaude the reactions of the responders and the concern of saftey for the childern that the teaching staff showed. As far as the comments of "wasting tax payer money" I truly feel that this comment was probably made by an already digruntled citizen. Would you still be making that comment if it was your child in potential danger? I'd rather pay for my saftey and the saftey of the children then to find out later that due to budget cuts there was not an appropriate police response largly due to the government not wanting to pay a few hours OT because they liten to uneducated taxpayers who think there money is being waisted on unnessasary services such a police and fire reources. Again, excellent job to the CERT team and all involved. Thank you for being there when needed. "

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Kevsim69 wrote on Nov 18, 2009 9:40 AM:

" Are you F..ing kidding me? You call out the SWAT team because someone is roaming the halls? Way to overreact, not to mention completely waste tax dollars. "

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dnlmom wrote on Nov 18, 2009 9:45 AM:

" If malice had occurred, the school would have been sued. Because it is a private, tuition drive Christian school that probably barely keeps its doors open from year to year, it would have to shut-down over a lawsuit.

Sadly, prudence has been trumped by blame and lawsuits in our society today. The school was acting in a way that protected itself. "

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yac24 wrote on Nov 18, 2009 10:06 AM:

" Ok,, once again. Will the people who keep commenting on waisting tax dollars please re-read the article. The CERT team was already assembled and in training, so either way the OT was pre budgeted and planned for. Wether they were training or called to a live incident at the time they were already "on the clock". Please stop showing your ignorance and falling back on the uneducated comment of "wasting tax dollars". "

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RIP_USA wrote on Nov 18, 2009 10:28 AM:

" yac24 said "Please stop showing your ignorance and falling back on the uneducated comment of "wasting tax dollars"".

At least those "ignorant" and "uneducated" folks know the difference between "waste" and waist" yac. Oh, and one more thing it's "wHether" you forgot the "h". "

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yellowrose wrote on Nov 18, 2009 10:39 AM:

" I agree with the others that thing this whole incident is absurd. A parent roamed the hallway of his child's school. Didn't say goodbye, from that, the schools assumes he's Jack-the-Ripper and call the National Guard, Swat Team and bring in the the police attack dogs. I think this school should pay for this nonsense. They decided to be irrational and over react. "

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Richard Pryor wrote on Nov 18, 2009 10:42 AM:

" As mentioned earlier, God forbid anything did happen, be it a minor or major incident, you same a-holes that are complaining now would be the same ones complaining if something did happen. Maybe there were other measures that could have taken place but we don't know that. Thank God nothing did happen but as someone mentioned earlier, this type of response is warranted being the type of society we are now living in. As the old saying goes "you're damned if you do, you're damned in you don't" "

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nomorecville wrote on Nov 18, 2009 11:02 AM:

" I say the school officials did the right thing. Like said before, what if this guy wasn't a parent and just said he was. For one, he should have stayed were he was instructed to stay and none of this would have never happened. If i had children in this school and this was done, i would have been greatful that the officials went to this extreme to protect the children of the school. "

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martinbrody wrote on Nov 18, 2009 11:09 AM:

" It is good to see that our police are well equipped and presumably well trained for the worst situations. I know these special response teams are outfitted the way they are for a reason and they can't always control pictures taken and published on the web. I assume many kids saw them doing their jobs as well. I would recommend that the police be sure to humanize these officers so that children and the public seeing these photos don't get the impression of a military occupying force. Maybe some of them should go to the school dressed in regular uniforms and talk about their jobs so these kids understand they are regular people who have a job to do. I know they probably do this anyway through the school year, but I am sure the kids are talking about it and forming ideas now. "

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Mike Hawk wrote on Nov 18, 2009 11:19 AM:

" The school acted properly since there was a possible “unwanted visitor” in the building that they were not able to immediately identify or locate. I praise the quick reaction of all personnel involved. HOWEVER, the school is also to blame for this incident even occurring in the first place. Had the visitor not been left unattended, the situation would have never developed as it did. Also, he was seen “roaming the halls” (according to the press release) and nobody questioned his presence at that time.

This should be a lesson learned for all schools. Even nowadays with all of the crazy stuff that happens at schools, I find it frightening how simple it is to gain access to a school and freely roam the halls. "

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running_the_dream wrote on Nov 18, 2009 11:26 AM:

" I'm not so upset with the precautionary steps they took as I am with having read this trivial story. "

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yac24 wrote on Nov 18, 2009 11:30 AM:

" To RIP USA,
Really? You feel the need to pick things apart like typos and minor mispellings? I do so humbly submit to your superior knowlege and elevated understanding of the English language. Please accept my sincerest appologies for insulting your intelligence. I suppose I should spend more time at the public library, which in your eyes I'm sure, is funded in part with wasted tax dollars. "

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RIP_USA wrote on Nov 18, 2009 11:33 AM:

" yac said "Really? You feel the need to pick things apart like typos and minor mispellings? "

Naaa, just the hypocrisy of your rant. "

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yac24 wrote on Nov 18, 2009 11:49 AM:

" RIP
Well, to each his own but I'm sure you'd be the first to complain about the slow response or lack of law enforcement if nothing was done in this case. I agree that there could have been different proceedures in place, but my "rant" was not about how the situation unfolded, it was directed towards the lack of respect shown towards the people trying to protect a valuable resource, our children, by stating the responce was a waste of time, resources and money. "

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Mike Hawk wrote on Nov 18, 2009 12:07 PM:

" yac,
RIP doesn't care what you say; he's just going to pick apart your post because it's filled with misspellings. We get your point, and personally, I agree with you. Stop trying to get in the last work unless you use a spellchecker. "

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cville resident wrote on Nov 18, 2009 12:20 PM:

" Seriously, why wouldn't the teacher who came back to look for the parent first talk to the teacher he was there to visit to see if that teacher had in fact already met with him? I'm sure those students were scared by the presence of law enforcement patrolling with guns and having to "lock down". Seriously, seriously. It could have been avoided by one upfront conversation. This was a total over reaction. "

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jimmer579 wrote on Nov 18, 2009 12:21 PM:

" What about the moron from the 'main office' who sent the parent over to the elementary school unattended. Then they call in the cavalry when they can't find the parent. The school should be the one paying any extra costs for this event. Not taxpayers or anyone else. The school created the problem, they should pay for the cost of resolving the problem. "

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Aristotle wrote on Nov 18, 2009 12:25 PM:

" Let me get this straight, the guy wasn't making any threats, but the staff at the school lost track of a visitor and wrongly assumed he must be Charles Manson. As expected, turns out he was a harmless parent. The school decided to enlist an Army to protect the students. If this is their policy, fine with me. But, the school needs to foot the bill for all this. It's a private school. The school can raise the tuition to pay for this. In public schools, vistors must first sign in at the office and declare the nature of the visit, the teacher they are seeing, etc. How are teacher's supposed to keep track of vistors? Doesn't this school have a front desk staff to sign in vistors for security reasons? "

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stillwaters wrote on Nov 18, 2009 12:52 PM:

" I'd rather see a school go into lockdown needlessly than suffer the consequences if it were another VA Tech-type attack, wouldn't you? Just think of it as a big fire drill. Maybe the school didn't have the proper procedures set out for the staff to follow, and maybe this will get them to take another look at how things like this are handled. The authorities had a chance to run through a scenario no one wants to see happen. Again ... a big fire drill. When it comes to ensuring the safety of children, I'll spend my (and your) tax dollars with a smile. "

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Kevsim69 wrote on Nov 18, 2009 12:57 PM:

" "Because of our cooperation with the police department here and our safety team that was in place, no children were at risk," said Smock."

Ahh, No, actually no children were at risk because THERE WAS NO RISK. This guy is a grade A moron. Nice way to spin the complete lack of organization or system in place to keep track of visitors. "

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my 2 cents wrote on Nov 18, 2009 1:34 PM:

" You're right, Kevim69, there WAS no risk. The school scr-wed up big time. As to the comment of "this was just a fire drill." Public schools have to pay a fine if the fire department, etc. have to come out for a false alarm. This was nothing but a false alarm on the schools part. Live and learn, but it's a private school, they need to do something about their security system instead of not having any security measures and then calling the National Guard, swat team, etc. when they had absolutely no evidence of a threat. Didn't they know he was a parent? Didn't they ask? Taxpayers shouldn't have to pay for this school's giant error. "

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voytek055 wrote on Nov 18, 2009 2:52 PM:

" . . . all in all, the kids got to dress

up and play with their automatic weapons.

A good time was had by all. "

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silly wrote on Nov 18, 2009 3:36 PM:

" No doubt an overreaction, but, maybe it has turned out to be at least a great training event for our emergency personnel, their adrenaline was pumping, they were coordinating with eachother, and it seemed to go smoothly. No better way to really train then with a fake emergency. "

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werb&brew wrote on Nov 18, 2009 3:42 PM:

" Why didn't the teacher who had the "fruitless" conversation with the parent/suspect tell the other teacher who freaked out who the person was?
Sounds like the teacher who lost site/contact with the parent needs some help. "

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it's a wrap wrote on Nov 18, 2009 4:03 PM:

" viytek05..LOL!!! Isn't that the truth...they love this sort of thing.... "

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Cville-Not-City wrote on Nov 18, 2009 8:29 PM:

" WOLF....WOLF.... "

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IspeakTheTruth wrote on Nov 18, 2009 9:26 PM:

" So this is how Christians act? "

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hzryr61 wrote on Nov 19, 2009 12:07 AM:

" It was the guy's fault. If he would have stayed where the school official told him to stay, there would be no problems. His actions were the ROOT of this incident.

Sure other could have done things differently, but he should have stayed put. "

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yellowrose wrote on Nov 19, 2009 8:02 AM:

" hzryr61,
It wasn't the mans fault that the staff had no security measures. If they had no clue of who is was, why was the man left unattended? How was he to know that looking at the childrens artwork and leaving would cause such a an uproar. His actions are not at the root of this. The schools actions are.
When I go my son's high school before school, the front desk doesn't ask for my ID. I tell them who I am and they give me a visitors badge and I am free to walk around, look at the artwork, talk to a teacher, etc. I am guessing there is more to this story. "

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bobby wrote on Nov 19, 2009 9:59 AM:

" Plain and simply, this was just poor judgment and a knee-jerk reaction. It would have been very easy to check in with the teacher who spoke to the parent and confirm that all was OK.

Unless there was some form of direct (or even indirect) threat made by the 'agitated' parent, calling in the police was just not warranted in any way. Any attempt to explain this away as 'better safe then sorry' is just silly. "

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JusticeorJoke? wrote on Nov 19, 2009 4:08 PM:

" Some of you seem to have forgotten about the Nickle mines School shooting just a few years ago and that guy was a parent that went postal and murdered and mamed several children. AGAIN TIMES ARE DIFFERENT!! OVERREACTION OR NOT THIS WAS JUSTIFIED CONCERN ESPECIALLY SINCE THE PARENT WAS VISIBLY AGETATED if this kind of incident happened at my childs school better safe than sorry "

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kate wrote on Nov 20, 2009 8:17 AM:

" I'd rather the school be safe than sorry. "

Afghan Air War: More fighting, More Bombs, and Continued Civilian Casualties

nanakeser — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:11:31 GMT

AFGHANISTAN JOURNAL

David Wood

Afghan Air War: More fighting, More Bombs, and Continued Civilian Casualties

Posted:

11/20/09

Filed Under:Afghanistan Journal, Afghanistan Filed Under: --> Filed Under:Afghanistan Journal, Afghanistan -->

SHAW AIR FORCE BASE, S.C. -- American strike fighters and bombers are pounding insurgents in Afghanistan with increasing fury, despite a standing order by Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the top U.S. commander, to avoid civilian casualties.

President Obama is expected soon to announce his decision on a new Afghan war strategy and on whether to grant McChrystal's request for additional ground troops. Regardless of Obama's decisions, air war planners anticipate an increase in close air support missions in Afghanistan.

The accelerating pace of air operations raises the likelihood of additional civilian casualties, which have been cited by McChrystal and Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates as an inexcusable detriment to the war effort.

Taliban propagandists continue to churn out diatribes blaming U.S. air strikes as a major cause of the country's agony.

"The blind bombardment on [sic] civilian targets, night raids on people's houses, murder, tortures, bombardments on funeral and wedding ceremonies are some of the crimes the invaders have perpetuated during the past eight years,'' said a Nov. 5 Taliban communiqué, according to a translation by the NEFA Foundation, which monitors extremist Web sites.

But air strikes have proven essential as U.S. and allied ground troops grapple with shifting Taliban forces and tactics, according to officers here at the headquarters of U.S. Air Forces Central, which plans and directs all air operations in the Middle East region.

"We expect [close air support missions] to increase. As ground forces become more dispersed and separated from their supporting forces, air power is going to be that capability that allows them to have that kinetic or non-kinetic effect as required,'' said Air Force Lt. Col. John Edwards, deputy chief of plans for the command, known as AFCENT.

"Kinetic" is the military's polite term for "explosive.''

New data from AFCENT shows that ground combat engagements between U.S. troops and Afghan insurgents increased 55 percent since January. The number of air strikes by U.S. jets surged 39 percent from January through October. But the number of bombs dropped per month more than quadrupled, from 138 in January to 647 in October.

U.S. officials said the increase in air strikes and in the number of bombs dropped was in correlation to the increase in fighting across Afghanistan, and reflected, in part, the operations of the 20,000 additional troops ordered to Afghanistan by Obama last spring.

The U.S. effort to push back the widening Taliban-led insurgency and to win the support of the population has been marred by repeated incidents in which Afghan civilians have been killed or injured in air strikes. In Kunduz Province, for instance, as many as 83 villagers were killed in an attack in September by two U.S. F-15E jets. That air strike, which was ordered by a German officer, was investigated by the U.S. and allied commands but the results have never been released.

U.S. data on civilian casualties does not include any casualty numbers from the Kunduz air strike. "Frankly, we may never have an accurate tally from that event,'' said Air Force Lt. Col. Edward Sholtis, a spokesman for McChrystal. He said the report on the incident was still classified and has been passed to the German government.

Despite the Taliban's accusations against the United States for causing civilian casualties, independent organizations, including the United Nations, have documented the Taliban as the cause of most Afghan civilian casualties, primarily through the use of roadside bombs and suicide attacks.

Taliban insurgents often launch attacks on U.S. forces from civilian housing compounds, according to American ground combat commanders, deliberately exposing civilians to risk. If there are casualties, the Taliban blame Americans, they said.

To minimize civilian deaths as well as damaging accusations, McChrystal in July ordered a crackdown on the use of aerial bombing. Air strikes that might endanger residential compounds would be authorized only under "very limited and prescribed conditions,'' McChrystal ordered.

The effect of his directive on combat pilots was immediate: the responsibility to determine whether to drop bombs on enemy targets shifted from ground commanders to pilots. The air commander at Bagram Air Base, Brig. Gen. Steven Kwast, directed that even when American troops are under fire, pilots should not automatically agree to drop bombs.

In many circumstances, pilots say, they can see a better solution than the ground commander. Often this means the pilot will swoop down low over the insurgents to scatter them, and then strike when they are fleeing and at a safe distance from civilians.

"In no way was the (McChrystal) directive intended to limit air support to a ground unit,'' Air Force Col. Keith McBride, deputy director of the CENTAF air operations center, said in a telephone interview from Al Udeid air base in Qatar. The order was "to minimize collateral damage – NOT to minimize effects on the enemy,'' he said.

Sholtis, McChrystal's spokesman, said the number of civilians killed by U.S. and allied forces are "steadily trending downward,'' with 251 confirmed dead in the first 10 months of last year compared with 176 during the same period this year. The number of civilians killed by insurgents is "holding steady or trending a bit upward,'' he said, an assessment echoed by investigators for the United Nations.

"This is not tremendously great news for Afghans, because they need to be protected from insurgent violence, too,'' Sholtis acknowledged. "But if the trend holds, you could see the relative levels of violence further alienating the insurgents from the population.''

Although U.S. efforts seem to have reduced civilian casualties, it may be impossible to eliminate them. And the Kunduz incident demonstrates how a single error or misjudgment can have a profound effect, angering Afghans, tarnishing the U.S. claim that its forces are protecting the Afghan people, and handing the Taliban a propaganda bonanza.

Villagers have provided a list of civilians killed in the Kunduz air strike to Amnesty International. If those 83 people were included in the civilian casualty statistics, it would indicate that civilian casualties caused by U.S. and allied forces are rising, not declining.

Casualty calculations aside, air war planners here are scrambling to anticipate the president's war decisions, which will dictate a likely increase in aircraft and an acceleration in the pace of air operations. Each new idea emanating from the White House causes a spurt of additional planning.

"Just as you've heard numbers, we've heard numbers,'' said Col. Ken Craib, deputy chief of operations for CENTAF. Responding to news leaks from the White House, he added, means he and his planners work "a lot of weekends.''

Air operations planning is a complex process. The main air bases in Afghanistan, Bagram and Kandahar air fields, are already crowded with additional cargo planes and a squadron of fighters sent in earlier this year. Moving additional strike aircraft into Afghanistan would require building more ramp space to service and park aircraft, and would demand additional support from aerial refueling aircraft. Heavy KC-10 and KC-135 refuelers are based outside Afghanistan, flying mostly from Persian Gulf bases in complex orbits to rendezvous with fighters, which need regular tanking.

"You do it over and over again,'' Craib said, describing the work of planners. "You work off certain assumptions, talk with the allies and the ground forces, refine your assumptions, the plan begins to take shape, then you get new assumptions.'' he said.

Like everyone else, he said, "we are waiting to see the guidance from the president and secretary of defense on the way ahead as they see it.''

Buying a Used Handgun

Mr. Magoo — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 18:46:42 GMT

Buying a Used Handgun

By Chuck Hawks

This article is concerned with the purchase of used handguns by the recreational shooter. Handguns that will be used for their intended purpose, which is shooting, not with collectors' guns or wall hangers.

The common reasons to purchase a used handgun are to save money or acquire a model no longer in production. For example, I own several used Colt Diamondback revolvers in .22 LR and .38 Special, all of which I purchased after the Diamondback was discontinued.

Guns hold their value very well, so if you later decide to trade or sell a used gun you should be able to get pretty much what you paid for it. This is very important to those of us who have bought and sold a fair number of firearms for our personal use.

Buy from someone that you trust

If you are not an experienced used gun buyer, perhaps the most important thing is to buy from someone you trust. A reputable gun shop is not looking to rip you off, they are looking for repeat customers, and they should have already inspected the gun for condition and safety before putting it on the rack. They should be willing and able to give you an honest appraisal of the gun. Most will allow you to return a used gun for a refund or exchange within a reasonable period of time (like a week, not a month!) if it doesn't meet normal standards of accuracy and function. Obviously, a handgun being returned must come back in the same condition it left the store.

Always test any pistol for function and accuracy with factory loads. If there is a problem, you want to be sure that reloaded ammunition cannot be blamed.

I recently purchased a used Weatherby rifle from a local gun shop where I have done business for years. The owner was familiar with the history of this particular rifle, and assured me that he had seen the previous owner shoot consistent 3-shot groups of less than one inch at 100 yards. It checked out functionally perfect. We looked-up the rifle in the current issue of Fjestad's Blue Book of Gun Values (always do this) and agreed on a price we could both live with. Had there been a problem of some sort (there wasn't, the gun was exactly as advertised), I could have returned it without any hassle. This is the way a used gun sale is supposed to work, and it is entirely dependent on dealing with honest people.

Buying through the mail or Internet

My advice to the novice used gun buyer is to avoid doing so. Don't buy any firearm you cannot inspect first. Not that there is a problem with most mail order sales, but should there be a problem you are entirely dependent of the good offices of a stranger. It is always better to deal face to face with the seller.

How to check the condition of a used handgun--general points

Before handling any firearm, always open the action and verify that both the chamber and the magazine are empty. Remove the magazine if possible. Every time a firearm changes hands it should be cleared.

1. Look at the overall condition of the gun. Notice the condition of the bluing and the overall wear. Look for rust pitting on external metal surfaces. Are the grips in good condition? All screws should be tight and the screw heads un-marred. The gun doesn't have to be perfect in every area, but it should show care rather than neglect. A pistol could be rough on the outside, yet perfect on the inside, but the chances are that an owner who didn't care for the external parts of a gun also didn't care for the parts you can't see.

2. The size, shape and angle of the grip should fit your hand. When you bring the gun to eye level your master eye should be looking straight down on the barrel. The gun should not be tipped up or down. Having a gun that points naturally is especially important for a pistol that might be used for protection.

3. Look carefully down the external length of the barrel to see that it looks straight and there are no subtle bulges. Don't buy any handgun if you suspect that the barrel (or the cylinder of a revolver) has been bulged, no matter how slightly, or if it is not straight. Also look at the crown of the muzzle--it should not be dinged.

4. Note the position of the rear sight on guns with adjustable sights. If it is way off to one side, suspect some sort of problem and ask to shoot the gun to verify accuracy before purchase. If the seller refuses, pass on the gun.

5. Check the condition of the grips. There should not be any splits, chips, or cracks in the grips, particularly if you are looking at a discontinued model (for which it may be hard to find replacement grips). Scratches in the grip finish, worn checkering, and tiny nicks in the grips will not affect the gun's function, but should lower the price.

As the screws holding wood grips to the grip frame are tightened they will tend to pull deeper and deeper into the wood. Check to see that they are not about to pull clear through. This is particularly common with Ruger single action (SA) revolvers, but applies to most guns with wooden grip panels.

6. Get permission to dry fire the gun and check the trigger pull. Dry firing will not hurt most centerfire handguns, but it is still a good idea to use snap caps to protect the firing pin.

Whatever the trigger pull weight, it should be consistent from shot to shot. If it feels like a stock factory trigger (too heavy with some creep), fine, you can get it adjusted later. If it feels crisp and breaks at 2.5-3 pounds it has probably been worked on or adjusted. This is great if done properly, as it will save you some money, but make sure that the piece will not jar off.

To test this, get permission to bump the butt of the cocked handgun against some firm but padded surface. The gun should not fire. Push against the fully cocked hammer (if the pistol has one) with your thumb--it should not slip out of its notch; reject the gun if it does.

7. Check the inside of the barrel (and the chambers of a revolver's cylinder). If the barrel is dirty, ask that it be cleaned or for permission to clean it yourself. Do not oil the barrel after cleaning, and be suspicious of any barrel that has been oiled. The shine from the oil can hide minor barrel imperfections and pitting.

Once the barrel is reasonably clean, dry, and oil free, open the action or remove the barrel and look into it from both ends. Use a bore light. Hopefully it will be clean and bright with sharp rifling. A slight amount of rust or pitting inside the barrel (or the cylinder of a revolver) will ordinarily not seriously degrade the performance of a handgun, unless it is a target pistol, but it should lower the used price.

Specific things to check on used revolvers

1. Note the condition of the forcing cone at the back of the barrel. Slight erosion in this area, particularly on magnum revolvers, is not cause for concern, but it should not be seriously eroded. The more erosion you see the more the gun has been fired with heavy loads.

2. Check for cutting of the top strap at the cylinder gap, particularly with magnum revolvers. A little erosion here will not hurt, but excessive cutting is undesirable and indicates a lot of shooting with heavy loads, or a wide cylinder gap, or both.

3. To test the safety notch of a traditional single action revolver, pull firmly (about 8-10 pounds--this is not intended to be a test to destruction) on the trigger with the hammer in the safety notch to see if it can be easily forced. Put the revolver on half *** (the loading position) and repeat the test, applying about 5 pounds of pressure on the trigger. The hammer should not drop. This test does not apply to New Model (two screw) Ruger SA revolvers, as they use a different lockwork than traditional SA revolvers.

4. The cylinder of Colt double action revolvers should be completely tight when the trigger is pulled all the way back (the hand forces the cylinder against the bolt). S&W revolvers are never as tight as a Colt, but at least they should not rattle. Slight cylinder play is permissible with S&W DA (and also Ruger SA) revolvers.

5. Check the cylinder gap. It should not exceed .010", and .006" is ideal. *** the gun to turn the cylinder so that every chamber, in turn, lines up with the barrel. The cylinder gap should remain constant.

Also, the cylinder should not slide back and forth appreciably on the cylinder pin. This is called endplay, and it generally increases with use.

6. The crane of a swing out cylinder DA revolver should fit tight to the frame (when closed) without any unsightly gaps. If it doesn't the crane may be sprung. When you wiggle the cylinder with your fingers the crane should barely move, if at all.

While you are at it, check to make sure that the ejector rod has not been bent. This is easy to see if you spin the cylinder, which should spin true.

7. Use you fingers or thumb to put a small amount of drag on the cylinder while you manually *** the revolver (single action mode). The cylinder bolt should click into the locking notches in the cylinder, locking the cylinder in place, at the end of each segment of cylinder rotation. If it does not, the gun is out of time and needs work. Then rapidly thumb *** the gun (don't "fan" a revolver)--the cylinder should not rotate past the proper locking notch. Also, the bolt should not be dragging on the cylinder as it turns. If it does it will leave a clearly visible wear line in the cylinder's finish.

8. Examine the sideplate of a DA revolver. If it has been improperly disassembled it may show pry marks at the edge or have been warped. The sideplate should fit flush and tight, without any gaps.

9. Check the tip of the firing pin, it should be smooth and rounded, not sharp or broken. The firing pin hole should not be chipped or burred.

Specific things to check on used semi-automatic pistols

1. See that all of the controls work smoothly and with a reasonable amount of pressure. The safety should prevent the gun from firing (check by setting the safety and pulling the trigger normally). The slide lock should hold the slide open. The magazine release should release the magazine easily and yet hold it securely in place until it is pushed. If there is a grip safety the gun should not fire unless the grip safety fully depressed. If there is a magazine safety the gun should not fire unless the magazine is in place. Also, pulling the trigger should not fire the gun when the slide is held slightly out of battery.

2. Cycle an autoloader to verify that it operates smoothly and properly. See that the slide is tight and reasonably free of slop when closed and the pistol is cocked. (There is ordinarily some play or the gun will not function.) Verify that the pistol fieldstrips and reassembles correctly. Also see that the action has been kept reasonably clean for proper functioning.

3. Examine the slide (especially at the front and at the ejection port) and frame for excessive wear or cracks. Aluminum alloy frames are particularly susceptible to developing hairline cracks (and eventually failing) from extended use.

4. The cocked hammer or striker of a SA auto pistol should not drop when the slide is closed smartly. If you can make the hammer drop by letting the slide slam closed the gun is unsafe.

5. Check the magazine(s) for wear and condition. A proper magazine is very important to the functioning of an autoloading pistol. You want the original, name brand, magazine(s) in good condition. Inspect the feed lips for bends, cracks and wear, and insure that the seam at the back of the magazine is tight.

Also check the bottom of the magazine to insure that it has not been ejected from the pistol and allowed to fall to the ground. This looks great on TV or at action matches, but in real life it is very hard on magazines. Magazines are not expendable.

Conclusion

Quality firearms are built to last for generations. This makes used guns a much better investment over time than most consumer goods. Buying a used handgun can be, and usually is, a rewarding experience. I have bought the great majority of all of the guns I have ever owned used, and I can't remember ever being burned.

What I do remember is a lot of fun owning and shooting guns I could not otherwise afford. Sometimes I have even made a slight profit when it became necessary to sell a gun that I originally purchased used. (Usually because I needed the money to purchase some other used gun I could not resist.) Buy used, save money, and have more fun shooting!

Beware Swine Flu Vaccination

InnaD — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:07:15 GMT

Beware Swine Flu Vaccination

It Can Weaken Your Immune
System and Damage Your Brain!

See How Big Government and Big Pharma
Conspire to Force Medicines on You!

Dear Friend,

All across America, people are speaking out on healthcare reform . . .

What will it cost?
Who will make medical decisions?
What might the government force on us?

What isn't being discussed is how Big Government and Big Pharma already have colluded to force medications on us, including some that are truly harmful.

Take government's aggressive promotion of the swine flu vaccination . . .

Flu vaccinations contain a full dose of mercury, the most toxic substance known to man.

No amount of mercury is safe. Even very small amounts can weaken your immune system.

Vaccinations also cause brain inflammation. And severe brain inflammation will lead to . . .

Behavioral problems and language difficulties in children!
Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases in adults!

Hello, I'm Dr Russell Blaylock. For 26 years, I've been helping folks in my medical, neurosurgical, and nutritional practice not only get off of dangerous drugs that do little or no good but also get natural solutions that actually work!

As the editor of Newsmax's popular health letter, The Blaylock Wellness Report I routinely cover . . .

Important health issues in the news
Dangerous and ineffective drugs to avoid
Propaganda from Big Pharma and the U.S. government

Most important, I offer safe and effective natural therapies for preventing and treating . . .

Heart disease, cancer, arthritis, neurodegenerative diseases . . .
Fatigue, headache, allergies, digestive ailments . . .
Diabetes, skin disorders, sciatica, bone health, and more!

Today, I'm going to give you a far safer and more effective remedy for preventing flu. In fact, I want you to have a FREE copy of my report on this, Vaccinations and Brain Injuries — Are You at Risk?

But first, I want you to know that . . .

Big Pharma's Far-Reaching Power

I've never been more concerned about Big Pharma's near total control of medical information in this country, as well as our government's "bought-and-paid-for" role in pushing its agenda.

I'm especially worried that, as we move toward universal healthcare — a euphemism for socialized medicine — we'll ultimately see government bureaucrats controlling medications for the entire population.

Today, they're pushing risky vaccinations that do more for Big Pharma's bottom line than for the health of the American people . . .

But there's also talk of putting everybody on a "polypill" that combines aspirin, blood pressure medicine, and cholesterol-lowering medication.

I'm not kidding! This crazy idea comes from the United Kingdom and — and it has been proposed here to control healthcare costs. It's bad enough that . . .

Big Pharma wants everybody on cholesterol-lowering drugs, including children . . .

Cholesterol does NOT cause heart disease. And taking cholesterol-lowering drugs will not prevent heart attacks or heart disease but will do bodily harm. See my report, "Cholesterol Drugs Are Dangerous" by going here.

I want you to be aware of Big Pharma's hidden agenda, and how companies get our government and media to promote their drugs, even when those drugs are harmful or ineffective.

That's why I want you to have a FREE copy of Vaccinations and Brain Injuries – Are You at Risk? Let's see what's in this valuable report for you . . .

Why Three Flu Shots This Fall?

You've seen the media blitz: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says you'll need two swine flu shots, as well as the regular seasonal flu shot.

Yes! Incredibly, it's urging three flu shots this fall! But why? Let's follow the money to find the answer . . .

When the swine flu story first broke, experts warned that it could be the worst flu since the 1918 pandemic that killed more than 50 million people worldwide, including 700,000 Americans.

But who were these experts?

People on the pharmaceutical and government payroll, that's who. They said it was the most unusual virus they had ever seen . . . that it could kill in large numbers . . .

Overnight, a compliant media spread this alarming news was spread far and wide.

Parents were scared out of their wits. Schools were closed. Millions with flu symptoms flocked to doctors and hospitals!

And what happened? Across the globe, 429 people died. Yes, that's unfortunate, but compared with the 36,000 people that die each year from regular flu it wasn't a serious threat.

Swine Flu Found to be Weak Virus

The Chicken Little doomsayers (read "drug company executives") were disappointed in these statistics. But now they're back scaring the public again, saying the "big event" is coming this winter!

And surprise of all surprises, drugmaker Novartis has a swine flu vaccine all ready to go. And the company says it won't give the vaccine away to the poor. Everybody must pay!

Imagine if it could sell 2 billion doses worldwide and get $5 a piece for them. That's $10 billion.

Neat trick. But to succeed, it will need governments around the world insisting that their citizens get vaccinated while using taxpayer money to buy the vaccine for the poor.

Washington is on board. Can you guess why?

Big Pharma is the biggest contributor to Washington politicians — both Democrats and Republicans. President Obama himself collected $1.2 million during his presidential campaign.

Just be aware of what's going on . . .

Washington Politicians Bought

Already, Big Pharma's chief lobbyist, Billy Tauzin, has cut a secret deal with President Obama ensuring that drug prices won't be negotiated any lower in any healthcare reform legislation.

The American Medical Association, which is Big Pharma's silent partner, has a deal, too: No reduction of its lucrative licensing fees on "medical billing codes" will be allowed in any legislation.

Have you noticed that Big Pharma and the AMA are on board with Obama's healthcare plan? Even over the objections of most doctors!

Meanwhile, nobody is allowed to offer alternatives for preventing swine flu. Government medical bureaucrats are the sole source of official information, and they're getting their marching orders from Big Pharma, while you pick up the bill!

Well, I'm blowing the whistle!

As a neurosurgeon, I can tell you that vaccinations are not safe. They can weaken your immune system, cause brain inflammation, and even lead to neurodegenerative disorders such as autism, Alzheimer's, and Parkinson's.

Why risk these serious diseases when you can get better and safer alternatives for flu prevention and treatment?

Now's the time to take control of your healthcare decisions, get the best medical solutions, and not be tricked or coerced by Big Government and Big Pharma.

That's why today I'm extending a special offer to try The Blaylock Wellness Report at half price — just 13 cents a day. That's not a misprint — I really mean just 13 cents a day!

And my special offer includes a FREE copy of Vaccinations and Brain Injuries — Are You at Risk? Plus, FREE copies of these valuable reports . . .

Cholesterol Drugs Are Dangerous!
Health Exams that Can Save Your Life!
Omega-3: Nature's Miracle Panacea
Eliminate Hypertension Forever!
Prevent Cancer Before It's Too Late!

Let's see what else of value you'll find in your FREE copy of Vaccinations and Brain Injuries — Are You at Risk? Go Here Now.

How Big Pharma Controls Medical Treatment

Are you aware that Big Pharma has near total control of medical education in this country, as well as how doctors practice medicine?

That means they control the treatment you receive. Here's how they do it:

First, they fund most medical research and set up the studies to favor their drugs . . .

Second, they contribute heavily to medical schools, especially those that have the most public and media influence . . .

Third, they advertise heavily in medical journals and popular consumer publications . . .

Fourth, they've long had an alliance with the AMA for the dual purpose of supporting one another and denigrating competitors.

So, when doctors got to medical school . . . they learn to diagnose diseases and to prescribe pharmaceutical drugs for those diseases.

Likewise, when you go to see your doctor, he or she prescribes drugs as your primary medical treatment.

Granted, some of this medicine is good, even life-saving. But much of it is worthless, harmful, even life-threatening. And you need to know the difference.

Cholesterol drugs, stomach-acid-reducing drugs, blood thinners, anti-depressants, sleeping pills, and many more drugs do more harm than good.

That's why I want you to try The Blaylock Wellness Report at half price, just 13 cents a day. That's also why I want you to have a FREE copy of Vaccinations and Brain Injuries — Are You at Risk? Go Here Now.

Let's look at more of the valuable information in your free report . . .

Do You Know How the Flu Virus Works?

The flu virus causes immune cells to produce cytokine molecules that increase inflammation. Normally this is controlled, but in extreme cases, a "cytokine storm" occurs. This can cause tissue and organ damage, and even death.

When you're fighting the flu, you feel bad not because of the virus but rather because of the "cytokine storm."

But get this: All vaccines trigger their own cytokine storms. And researchers now know that increased inflammation is at the heart of most illness and disease. Which means the vaccines themselves are hazardous to your health.

The solution is to avoid flu shots, and if you've had them in the past, to take nutrients that will strengthen your immune system and reduce inflammatory cytokine activity.

The following nutrients — fully detailed in your FREE REPORT — are your best course for defense and repair . . .

Vitamins C and E, plus carotenoids: See how a deficiency suppresses your immune system, a common problem among the elderly.
Vitamin D: See how five to 10 times the RDA will protect you against flu, weak bones, cancer, and more, but you must get the "right type."
Curcumin and quercetin: Combining the two in my recommended dosages will calm a cytokine storm and prevent bodily damage!
Magnesium, selenium, and zinc: These can control inflammation and strengthen immunity, but see which types to use!
Resveratrol: See the type and dosage to prevent viral replication. It also protects your brain from damage!
Three little-known supplements that will increase immune-boosting glutathione in your cells, fight viral infection, and reduce inflammation!
Inflammatory foods to avoid that contain omega 6 oils, iron, sugar, mercury, and fluoride.

47% Will Pay No Federal Tax In 2009

Mr. Magoo — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 18:09:20 GMT

5% Of U.S. Taxpayers Account For 60.6% Of All Tax Revenue, 47% Will Pay No Federal Tax In 2009

Tyler Durden
Zero Hedge
Wednesday, Nov 18th, 2009

An interest observation courtesy of Mint: of the 307,868,280 Americans out there, which compose 151,485,000 tax units, 46.9% will have zero federal income tax liability in 2009. Brilliant plan to keep the country happy: the poor pay no taxes, the rich get a massive stock market bubble to sell into, and the disappearing middle class…well, they can pay $20 for a hotdog and beer combo in Prague on that once-every-five-years vacation.

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5% Of U.S. Taxpayers Account For 60.6% Of All Tax Revenue, 47% Will Pay No Federal Tax In 2009