Markets will drop 25 to 50 percent and it will happen abruptly, Deighan told CNBC. “There’s no basic foundation for the run-up we’ve had, been far too rapid. It continues to run up on what’s normally considered bad news,” he said. Deighan said in the past, Wall Street “shoved things down Main Street’s throat.” And now, he believes, "Washington" is trying to do the same. Main Street is slowly finding out "what’s going on with the banks, health care and the Federal Reserve’s moves" and they are “absolutely angry.” http://www.cnbc.com/id/32417835/site/14081545

I dont see a 50% correction in the very near future.Did you see where the banks were and MCD was in March.MCD has been almost the same since last year.The banks went to the bottom .I dont expect them to see those levels again.I do feel a correction will be coming but about months after the everyday investor has been back in the market.and that might be about next year.right now people are chasing the market making it go up.

CNBC.com has articles that are all over the place. One article says huge correction coming, the next article says the next bull is here already. They are about as bad as some rag magazine at the grocery store anymore.

Art Cashen though, who I usually think knows what he is talking about has been talking about big correction soon.

until the next round of earnings i expect a flat market with only radical moves on radical newsdays

We are getting into that scary time of year. I think Sept is the worse month for stock market drops, usually people think of Oct. But Sept is worse.

Also, how will the swine flu affect the market. Flu doesnt seem bad. The government and their constant stream of terribly negative and gloomy flu news might just knock the market on its butt.

I really hope that CNBC is just spreading rumors, but i don't know. if there will be a major drop in markets, then it will be a disaster for small countries like Latvia, Estonia, Hungary. Even now they have major problems.

Well yesterday we saw S&P prices doing a 50% retracement fo the big losses we had last year. So a 50% retracement of this move would not bring us anywhere near the lows.  I think it is possible and would be a buyer at levels like that.

Montana:

CNBC.com has articles that are all over the place. One article says huge correction coming, the next article says the next bull is here already. They are about as bad as some rag magazine at the grocery store anymore.

Art Cashen though, who I usually think knows what he is talking about has been talking about big correction soon.

 

You can almost always find someone equally intelligent who will say the opposite of another expert. I go on what a majority of the experts think and personal feeling. Subprime didn't feel right, so I shorted the market. It took a while, but I was right!

 This market has no valid reason for its rapid climb, I suspect that the big institutions are running the market up to get main street to invest in there 401k's again, and then dump on them like they always have before.

At the end of this quarter the numbers will not be that good and I expect a real drop in the market, now is a good time to take one's profits and park there cash on the side lines for a while.

or better yet look to go short

 I don't tend to believe anything CNBC says most of the people are just blowing smoke up ur ass and most of them don't know anything look at jim craemer he tells people to buy itm or deep itm call options on stocks there is a reason why they say this to you the would take the other side of that trade i don't see anything right now that would force the market to drop 25-50% .  This market is going higher it is in a strong uptrend and were seeing the fundamentals back up the technicals and there is nothing tells anything otherwise the  economic stats also shows more positive to.  We are in a bull marke. Those were the same people who couldn't see this crisis coming.

Montana:

We are getting into that scary time of year. I think Sept is the worse month for stock market drops, usually people think of Oct. But Sept is worse.

Also, how will the swine flu affect the market. Flu doesnt seem bad. The government and their constant stream of terribly negative and gloomy flu news might just knock the market on its butt.

I'd go with Oct being worse. Funny how brokers can believe that but still be techincal traders...

I AGREE, If any of you follow William O'neil and his way of looking at the markets then you will want to take a look at the recent distribution days in the S&P 500

50% Is a bit high , but I do see A hugh drop coming . Just don't get sucked in for the big fall when it dose come .

Today ain't the day for the drop. But when it does, I'm definitely not going to be the one trying to catch the falling knife. I'll wait till it bottoms out or even starts to go up again.

I'm going to try to ride the knife down

That is what I would like to do, ride the knife down and then buy buy.  My problem is I still can not judge in time to do much of anything.  

Most of time by the time I decide that it really is a downturn and not just real temporary it is already at the bottom and fixing to start back up, and most of the time by the time I decide that we really are in an uptrend it is already nearly up as far as it is going for awhile.

Still trying to get a better feel for the market on this, but so far I seem to be in a rut on that one.  It won't matter as much when I have more time to watch the market during market hours and can sell or buy quick, but the after hour trades kill me when I make the wrong trade.

Anyway, good luck GCman, I am pretty sure you will do very well.

Barbara - there are so many people who are trying to make people believe that their way is the best and they will sell you the key to making a fortune in the market for a price. Because of that people are taken for a ride a number of times on how to time the market get out at the very top or in at the very bottom and are left without really knowing anything more than they did before. I have found that the way to make money in the market is to know what the big institutions are doing. Here is why a stock moves the way it does: Why stocks move the way they do (Accumulation, Mark up, distribution and Mark down) There are four phases to every stock or Market move. Always remember there is someone who always has more information than you. The big stock operators have a battle plan that has a starting point and a finish point Accumulation Phase: This phase takes place at the bottoms over a longer period of time. This is where an operator quietly builds a stake. Usually takes from 6 weeks to 2 years. They will do their best to keep the stocks price down. When he has enough he will commence the start of the mark-up phase. Mark-Up Phase: The operator will make sure there are plenty of positive press releases. When you hear Warren Buffet is buying a stock there is a reason for it.. the operator may even but more stock to push it above breakout levels to create a buying frenzy that send the price higher. When prices start to go down the operator will pick certain price points where they will support their stocks price by buying more stock. The operator will continue to mark up the price until they reach their goal.. Lasts few months to years. Volume should be strong throughout this phase Distribution phase: this phase usually start before a stock reaches the top. Operators know they can't get out of their large positions quickly. They start working their way out of their positions when their price goal has been met. This phase has the stock moving from strong to weak hands. Volume is quiet like in the accumulation phase. The operators will try to do their best to unload a stock while prices are high. When the operators reach the end of their load you see prices begin to slip and they may have a quick sale where they dump their remaining inventory. This day will have large volume as price moves down. (Volume off the top). This starts the mark down Phase. Mark-Down Phase: Mark downs are accomplished by hedge funds because mutual funds are not allowed to sell short. The largest holder have gotten out of the stock in the Distribution phase the hedge funds know that a new line of ownership will not start until prices are much lower. So they will sell into rallies driving price further down. The hedge fund have a plan on the way down the same way the operators had a plan for the way up. Volume and price activity are intense on the way down because there is no stability in ownership but once price and volume stabilize you can bet that a new accumulation phase will start. These big institutions leave clues in a stock chart that when noticed can make you money. Learn how to find these clues and you will no longer struggle.

wow,  thanks GCman, I hope this isn't an uninformed question, but do you watch insider trading if you have a stock for an indication of markdown ?

Volume tells you everything you need to know in any stock.  If you have distribution, which can be defined as a stock that has larger volume than the day before, but closes below the previous days close, for 3 to 5 days within the past month there is a good chance the stock is under pressure by the insitutions and will head down.  On the reverse side if a stock is heading down and there is a big accumulation day, one where the stock is up 1% to 2% or more over the previous day and the sotcks daily volume is 50% more than the previous days volume, then there is a good chance institutions are buying that stock.  Look at SPY over the last two months, you can see distribution days that drive the stock down and then an accumulation day that negates those distribution days and sends it higher.  examples of stocks that had a big accumulation day in the last week, take a look and judge for your self.

LRCX - 10/5 - Accumulation day.

RAI - 10/5 - Accumulation day

ANF - 10/6 - Accumulation day

STAR - 10/6 - Accumulation day

TBT - 10/8 - Accumulation day

ITT - 10/9 - Accumulation day

SNY - 10/12 - Accumulation day

FFIV - 10/13 - Accumulation day.