Dead cat bounce! Beware of bear market trap ...

Last post 11-18-2008 11:06 PM by wise-picks. 21 replies.
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  • 07-25-2008 2:24 AM

    Dead cat bounce! Beware of bear market trap ...

    Dead cat bounce!
    Beware of bear market trap ...
    Bernanke and Paulson's smoke, mirrors and hot air are temporarily buoying markets, luring gullible investors back into stocks! Meanwhile, Merrill Lynch just disclosed it was creamed by $40 billion in investment write-downs in the second quarter — $69 billion so far this year.Citigroup has revealed a $2.5 billion loss — and a decline in total assets of a staggering $99 billion so far this year.2.2 million vacant homes for sale.Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac either hold or back $5.3 trillion of mortgage debt. That's about half the outstanding mortgages in the United States.Shares of Fannie Mae plunged 45 percent last week and are down 74 percent since the beginning of the year. Freddie Mac shares fell 47 percent last week, and have fallen 77 percent so far this year. Over the rest of this year, the economy will grow "appreciably below its trend rate" mostly because of continued weakness in housing markets, high energy prices and tight credit conditions. The employment situation has to turn around for the housing market to turn around.Yes, Washington's efforts to rescue Fannie, Freddie and other lenders have lured some investors back into stocks. But mark my words: It will be a move those investors could regret for the rest of their investing lives.Every indicator is virtually screaming that this is nothing more than a bear market trap — a dead cat bounce — and that the worst of this crisis is still ahead of us.There is no way Ford Motor should be over $2 a share and GM over $5 to $6 a share. Wachovia Bank should not be rallying. Any Comments: 

     

  • 07-25-2008 8:16 AM In reply to

    Re: Dead cat bounce! Beware of bear market trap ...

    That is why there is something called "going short" and options called "puts" to take advantage of the stocks that go down. If you are going to be in the market you have to learn these techniques as well as "buy and Hold".  And buy and hold does not mean buy and forget.

  • 07-25-2008 8:27 PM In reply to

    Re: Dead cat bounce! Beware of bear market trap ...

    I am aware of short trading and Options. I’ve been shorting now for about a week and am recovering some losses in the last two days. I have a fictitious account with CBOE where I can take advantage of options trading, unfortunately you can’t take advantage of puts and calls with Wall Street Survivor. I am doing well with my CBOE account because of the opportunity to trade options. Thanks.

  • 08-07-2008 2:00 PM In reply to

    Re: Dead cat bounce! Beware of bear market trap ...

    teamf05:
    Dead cat bounce!

     

    Love that analogy !!

    Let me expand... as rigor mortis sets in, the bounce will become progressively less "springy". That's when the cat  finally comes to rest (stinking to high heaven)

     

  • 08-07-2008 6:55 PM In reply to

    Re: Dead cat bounce! Beware of bear market trap ...

    is this a real situation

  • 08-10-2008 3:16 PM In reply to

    Re: Dead cat bounce! Beware of bear market trap ...

    A temporary recovery from a prolonged decline or bear market, after which the market continues to fall.

  • 08-13-2008 3:33 PM In reply to

    Re: Dead cat bounce! Beware of bear market trap ...

     

    Dow 11,553.56 -88.91 -0.76%
    Chart for Dow
    Filed under:
  • 08-21-2008 1:41 AM In reply to

    Re: Dead cat bounce! Beware of bear market trap ...

    Looks like another big down day ahead for Thursday. 

  • 08-24-2008 10:30 PM In reply to

    Re: Dead cat bounce! Beware of bear market trap ...

     There are a few unique factors taking place as we talk. 1 the upcoming elections will have a major impact on the markets. 2 The Fed is bailing every investment firm out and the taxpayer is going to be liable for years to come to the sum of trillions of dollars. 3 The war in the middle east and Afganistan and now the cold war being rekindled.

    All these factors will have a major impact on the markets for the next 2 to 5 years in a very positive way, I'm going to look for companies that supply munitions and other military hardware if McCain is elected, these companies stand to reap fortunes.

    If Obama is elected I'm going to look for companies that produce things like concrete and other building supplies for road and highway construction.

    I'm going to buy as many shares as possible in Fannie and Freddie, it won't matter who is elected the government cannot afford neither of these companies to go under.

    There is always opportunities in the stock market no matter which way the economy is headed, that's the beauty of the stock market.

    Also bio tech, medical supply and pharmaceutical companies are excellent long term investments because the population is aging and more demands will be placed on these type of industries.

    There's always some bull even in a bear market.

     

  • 09-02-2008 2:40 AM In reply to

    Re: Dead cat bounce! Beware of bear market trap ...

    Dead cat bounce — what to do ...
    by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.

     

    Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.

    Don't let yesterday's rally in the Dow fool you. There are two crucial reasons why I'm convinced it was nothing more than a dead-cat bounce:

    First, it was on extremely light volume. With most of Wall Street traders already on their Labor Day vacations, a handful of traders can easily move the market no matter how dire the underlying fundamentals are.

    Second, the fundamental forces that caused this crisis — the number of mortgages going bad and the losses at banks, brokers and insurers — are piling up faster now than ever before.

    Nevertheless, the Pollyannas of Wall Street — the same analysts who used to swear on a stack of Bibles that the mortgage mess would be "small" and "limited to sub-prime" — are out in force again, trying to lure you back into some of the most vulnerable stocks in the world today.

    Mark my words: This credit crisis cannot end ... the bloodletting in bank stocks cannot subside ... the damage being inflicted on companies that need credit to survive cannot be healed ... and the carnage in the economy cannot be reversed ...

    ... until the cause ever increasing debt defaults is reversed.

    Meanwhile, we have alarming reports that Florida's largest bank is now hanging by a thread and that news of a major bail-out could come as early as next week. Be sure to look for Sunday's Money & Markets for the full report.

  • 09-02-2008 4:14 AM In reply to

    Re: Dead cat bounce! Beware of bear market trap ...

     I do think that the market is going a tad bit higher

    but, that gives bears a chance to short at higher levels

    not a good idea to short FNM FRE F GM - the easy money has been made

  • 09-15-2008 2:43 AM In reply to

    Re: Dead cat bounce! Beware of bear market trap ...

    Pre Market for Monday 9/15/08 This could be one of the worst days on Wall Street. Dow Jones -307.00 11144.00 9/15 1:22am

  • 09-29-2008 8:31 PM In reply to

    Re: Dead cat bounce! Beware of bear market trap ...

    Whether the Congress passes the bailout legislation or not, the outcome will be similar: The debt crisis will continue to deepen and spread. Many more banks will fail. The economy will sink into a severe recession. And those who stubbornly hold onto vulnerable investments will suffer some of the greatest losses in modern times.

  • 10-13-2008 2:05 AM In reply to

    Re: Dead cat bounce! Beware of bear market trap ...

     

    I posted this on July 25th, 2008  There is no way Ford Motor should be over $2 a share and GM over $5 to $6 a share.

    Now that FORD is under $2 and GM around $5, I say it's time to buy.

    The bottow is near.

    Filed under:
  • 10-13-2008 7:37 AM In reply to

    • danf
    • Top 100 Contributor
    • Joined on 09-03-2008
    • Posts 343

    Re: Dead cat bounce! Beware of bear market trap ...

    I think F is going below $1.35 and GM under $2.50.  I think they're going to slide further...  Why?  Credit markets are still very tight and people are going to keep on driving what they drive now.  All new car manufacturers will continue to feel this in the days ahead.  F and GM are already in a death spiral.  They are so desparate to sell off their excess inventory that they will start taking losses on it soon if they have not already.  I don't believe either will actually go under, but I do believe they have more to lose before they start coming back.

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